Transcript of Vangstadviezen van ICES voor 2016 in de Noordzee€¦ · okt/nov) Vandaag: presentatie ICES advies...
Vangstadviezen van ICES voor 2016 in de Noordzee
1 juli 2015
David C. M. Miller (IMARES, ACOM)
Het adviesproces
1. EC vraagt ICES om advies 2. Bestandsschattingen door werkgroepen 3. Controle bestandsschattingen door werkgroepleden en
reviewgroep 4. Opstellen advies 5. Kwaliteitscontrole van advies door ACOM 6. (Mogelijkheid voor updates voor bepaalde bestanden in
okt/nov) Vandaag: presentatie ICES advies
Uiteindelijk: EC besluit TAC, gebruik makend van advies
Beheerdoelen
Beheerders: conformeren aan Johannesburg
doelen (2002) ● “Maximum Sustainable Yield in 2015”
Opties ● Beheerplannen (mits voldoet aan voorzorgsbenadering)
● FMSY
● Voorzorgsbenadering
● Data limited stocks benadering
Presentator
Presentatienotities
Johannesburg World Summit on Sustainable Development 2002. Doel 2015: MSY
FMSY
Fishing mortality or effort
Yield
MSY
FMSY
Fcrash
BMSY
Fishing mortality or effort
SSB
BMSY
FMSY
limiet (Blim)
Vangstadviezen en de aanlandplicht
FMSY
Advies aanlandingen
Advies vangst
Presentator
Presentatienotities
Advice option plot indicating catch and landings
Dit advies gaat over Noordzeebestanden
Tong Schol Tarbot / griet Kabeljauw
Haring
Zeebaars Schar + bot
Wijting
Noorse kreeft
Presentator
Presentatienotities
ADJUST PICTURES
Noordzeetong (IV)
Paaistand boven doelniveau, visserijsterfte daalt tot net boven gewenste niveau
Noordzeetong - Advies
ICES adviseert op basis van beheerplan fase 2: volgens MSY Advies 2016: 11 921 ton aanlandingen Discards gekwantificeerd en in bestandsschatting
meegenomen. ● Advies vangst: 12 835 ton
Presentator
Presentatienotities
ICES advises that when the second stage of the EU management plan (Council Regulation No. 676/2007) is applied, catches should be no more than 12 835 tonnes. If this stock is not under the EU landing obligation in 2016 and discard rates do not change from the average (2012-2014), this implies landings of no more than 11 921 tonnes. The plan stipulates that stage 1 is deemed to be completed when both stocks have been within safe biological limits for two consecutive years. EU confirmed in spring 2015 that the plan was in stage 2. In stage two, the EU multiannual plan calls for management in line with the principles of MSY. ICES considers FMSY to be 0.22. Following the EU multiannual plan stage two therefore implies fishing mortality to be reduced to 0.22, which results in a TAC (landings) reduction of less than 15%. ICES cannot quantify the resulting catches. The implied landings should be no more than 10 973 t. Discards are known to take place in the order of an additional 20% of the landings in the last three years (2011–2013). Benchmark voorgesteld voor 2015 Evaluations of effects of amendments to the management plan Fase 2: On the basis of these evaluations, the by the Dutch ministry proposed amendments to article 4 (FMSY ranges for both stocks: FMSY PLE = 0.20-0.30, FMSY SOL = 0.20-0.25), article 9 (maximum allowable effort ceiling for the BT2 fleet set at the 2012 level) and allowing a system of banking and borrowing for both stocks are considered to ensure management of the stocks in accordance with MSY and the Precautionary Approach in the long term. In addition, some advice is provided with regards to articles 7 and 8 (‘TAC-setting procedures’) in terms of dealing with FMSY ranges and it is also proposed to keep the 15% TAC change limits in the plan.
Noordzee tong: recente aanlandingen stabiel
aanlandingen
bemonsterdediscards
geschatte discards
Presentator
Presentatienotities
Changed a lot from last year
periodes met sterke jaarklassen (aanwas talrijk)
Blim
Tong paaistand boven beheerdoel
Bpa
Presentator
Presentatienotities
- 2015 (1 jan) is de schatting naar aanleiding van de aanname over vangsten in het huidige jaar. die weten we nog niet. - 2016 (1 jan) is het geschatte resultaat na de vangsten in 2015 zoals geadviseerd
Visserijsterfte tong net boven doel (MSY)
Beheerdoel + FMSY
Presentator
Presentatienotities
Visserijsterfte tong neemt nog verder af
Jonge aanwas:
sterke jaarklassen (aanwas talrijk)
zwakke jaarklassen
Presentator
Presentatienotities
2014 waarde geschat uit de survey
Noordzeeschol (IV + IIIa)
Nu gecombineerd met Skagerrak (IIIa) Toename in de paaistand zet door,
visserijsterfte op laagterecord
Noordzeeschol - Advies
ICES adviseert op basis van beheerplan fase 2: waarbij het doel voor F minimaal 0.3 moet zijn. TAC mag maximaal met 15% toenemen
Advies voor 2016: 159 197 ton aanlandingen Discards gekwantificeerd en in bestandsschatting
meegenomen. ● Advies vangst: 213 440 ton
Presentator
Presentatienotities
ICES advises that when the the second stage of the EU management plan (Council Regulation No. 676/2007) is applied, catches in 2016 should be no more than 213 440 tonnes in Subarea IV and Division IIIa combined. If this stock is not under the EU landing obligation in 2016 and discard rates do not change from the average (2012–2014), this implies landings of no more than 159 197 tonnes. FMSY = 0.19 mismatch met beheerplan
periode met sterke jaarklassen (aanwas talrijk)
Noordzee schol: paaistand weer op recordhoogte
Toename SSB door lage visserijsterfte
Blim
Bpa
Presentator
Presentatienotities
Biomass scaled up with addition of SKA catch data Recruitment gradually increasing above average
Visserijsterfte schol laag
FMSY
Beheerdoel
Presentator
Presentatienotities
Beheerplan, Artikel 4: Lid 1: The multiannual plan shall, in its second stage, ensure the exploitation of the stocks of plaice and sole on the basis of maximum sustainable yield. Lid 2: voor schol, zie lid 1, while maintaining the fishing mortality at a rate equal to or no lower than 0,3 on ages two to six years. Lid 3: voor tong, zie lid 1, while maintaining the fishing mortality at a rate equal to or no lower than 0,2 on ages two to six years.
Noordzee tarbot (IV)
Afname in de paaistand door lage aanwas en hoge visserijsterfte
Noordzeetarbot – advies
ICES geeft advies op basis van data limited stocks aanpak
Advies 2016 én 2017: 1 925 ton aanlandingen Discards kwantificeren laatste 3 jaren
● Advies vangst: 1 995 ton
Tarbot en griet hebben vooralsnog een gecombineerde TAC
Presentator
Presentatienotities
ICES advises that when the precautionary approach is applied, catches should be no more than 1995 tonnes in each of the years 2016 and 2017. If discard rates do not change from 2014, this implies landings of no more than 1925 tonnes. Management of turbot and brill under a combined species TAC prevents effective control of the single species exploitation rates and could lead to the overexploitation of either species.
Paaistand gestabiliseerd op een relatief laag niveau
Presentator
Presentatienotities
Geen referentiepunt Relatieve bestandsschatting Catches have been stable last 15 years (with decreasing effort)
Visserijsterfte nog steeds te hoog
Afname in minimum aanlandingsmaat
Presentator
Presentatienotities
poor recruitment in 2013 lead to increase in F because catch young fish
Noordzeegriet (IV, IIIa, VIId,e)
Advies 2016 én 2017: 2 563 ton aanlandingen
Discards kwantificeren laatste 3 jaren
● Advies vangst: 2 756 ton vangst
Presentator
Presentatienotities
ICES advises that when the precautionary approach is applied, catches should be no more than 2756 tonnes in each of the years 2016 and 2017. If discard rates do not change from the average of the last three years (2012–2014), this implies landings of no more than 2563 tonnes. Management of turbot and brill under a combined species TAC prevents effective control of the single-species exploitation rates and could lead to the overexploitation of either species. Very little fluctuations in landings since 1975. Generally low though.
Noordzee kabeljauw (IV, VIId & IIIa)
Bestand net boven limietniveau, visserijsterfte onder beheerdoel
Noordzeekabeljauw – advies
ICES adviseert op basis van MSY benadering Advies voor 2016: 40 419 ton aanlandingen Discards gekwantificeerd en in bestandsschatting
meegenomen. ● Advies vangst: 49 259 ton
Presentator
Presentatienotities
ICES advises that when the MSY approach is applied, catches in 2016 should be no more than 49 259 tonnes. If this stock is not under the EU landing obligation in 2016 and discard rates do not change from 2014, this implies landings of no more than 40 419 tonnes. Advice basis MSY approach Management plan The EU–Norway management strategy was updated in December 2008. The EU has adopted a long-term plan with the same aims (EU management plan; EU, 2008). ICES evaluated the management strategy in 2009 and concluded that it is in accordance with the precautionary approach if implemented and enforced adequately. The management strategy was considered by ICES to switch from the recovery phase to the long-term phase in 2013. Changes to the stock assessment and reference points in 2015 imply a need to re-evaluate the management strategy to ascertain if it can still be considered precautionary under the new stock perception. Until such an evaluation can be conducted, the ICES advice is based on the MSY approach.
Bpa
Blim
Paaistand net boven limiet, maar nog steeds onder voorzorgsniveau
Sterke jaarklassen
Presentator
Presentatienotities
Prognose erg onzeker, but hopefully more reliable now After benchmark Both SSB and Blim increased
Visserijsterfte op beheerdoel (upper)
Beheerdoel - upper
FMSY
Beheerdoel - lower
Jonge aanwas kabeljauw blijft laag
Weinig jonge aanwas sinds
1997
Noordzeeharing (IV, VIId & IIIa)
Hoge paaistand, lage visserijsterfte
Noordzeeharing – advies
EU-Norway Beheerplan 2014 basis voor advies.
Advies 2016: 555 086 ton vangst ● 518 242 ton vangst consumptieharing (A
Fleet)
Discards verwaarloosbaar, dus vangst = aanlandingen
Presentator
Presentatienotities
ICES advises that when the European Union (EU)–Norway management plan is applied, catches in 2016 should be no more than 555 086 tonnes, including 518 242 t for the A-fleet. ICES advises, under precautionary considerations, that activities that have a negative impact on the spawning habitat of herring should not occur, unless the effects of these activities have been assessed and shown not to be detrimental. Advice basis EU–Norway Management strategy Management plan Herring in this area is managed by a joint EU-Norway Management Strategy (EU–Norway, 2014).
Noordzeeharing – paaistand nog steeds hoog
trigger
limiet
Presentator
Presentatienotities
Prognose advies jaar en jaar+1: SSB at spawning time (autumn spawners) Strong recruitment in 2014 – expect further growth, but limited because very low in 2015
Noordzeeharing – visserijsterfte (F) laag
Beheerdoel
Noordzee zeebaars (IV, VII)
Afname paaistand door hoge visserijsterfte en weinig jonge aanwas
Noordzee zeebaars – advies
ICES adviseert op basis van MSY benadering Advies voor 2016: 541 ton aanlandingen Discards niet gekwantificeerd, ca. 5% van de
vangst. Vangstadvies is niet mogelijk. Aanlandingsadvies geldt voor commerciële en
recreatieve visserij samen. Beheerplan noodzakelijk om visserijsterfte te
verminderen.
Presentator
Presentatienotities
ICES advises that when the MSY approach is applied, total landings (commercial and recreational) in 2016 should be no more than 541 tonnes. ICES cannot quantify the corresponding catches. ICES advises that a management plan is urgently needed to develop and implement measures to substantially reduce fishing mortality throughout the range of the stock. Advice basis MSY approach. Management plan There is no management plan for sea bass in this area.
Zeebaarsaanlandingen
Nederlandse aanvoer
Aanvoer andere landen
Presentator
Presentatienotities
No longer assume under-reporting (for years since 2006)
Jonge aanwas laag in recente jaren
Geen survey meer na 2011
Presentator
Presentatienotities
2012 : Geometric mean 2008–2011. 2013 en 2014: Geometric mean 1985–2011.
Paaistand neemt sterk af, onder voorzorgsniveau
Blim
Afname door hoge visserijsterfte en
weinig jonge aanwas
Bpa
Visserijsterfte blijft toenemen
FMSY
Presentator
Presentatienotities
Recreatieve visserij zorgt voor een F van ca. 0.09.
Mixed fisheries advice
‘extreem’ aanlandplicht
Presentator
Presentatienotities
Relevant now because of LO – realistic scenarios. aanlandplicht
Opmerkingen & Vragen
Dank u wel voor uw aandacht
Noordzee schar (IV, IIIa)
Presentator
Presentatienotities
Extra advice statements: TACs may not be appropriate as a management tool for bycatch species. Management of turbot and brill under a combined species TAC prevents effective control of the single species exploitation rates and could potentially lead to the overexploitation of either species.
Noordzee schar (IV, IIIa)
Advies 2016 én 2017: 7 608 ton aanlandingen
Discards kwantificeren laaste 3 jaren
● Advies vangst: 76 075 ton
Presentator
Presentatienotities
ICES advises that when the precautionary approach is applied, catches should be no more than 76 075 tonnes for each of the years 2016 and 2017. If discard rates do not change from the average of the last three years (2012–2014), this implies landings of no more than 7608 tonnes. Management of dab and flounder under a combined species TAC prevents effective control of the single-species exploitation rates and could lead to overexploitation of either species.
Noordzee bot (IV, IIIa)
Advies 2016 én 2017: 2 876 ton aanlandingen
Discards kwantificeren laaste 3 jaren
● Advies vangst: 5 228 ton vangst
Presentator
Presentatienotities
ICES advises that when the precautionary approach is applied, catches should be no more than 5228 tonnes in each of the years 2016 and 2017. If discard rates do not change from the average of the last three years (2012–2014), this implies landings of no more than 2876 tonnes. Management of dab and flounder under a combined species TAC prevents effective control of the single-species exploitation rates and could lead to overexploitation of either species.
Noordzee wijting (IV, VIId)
Bestand neemt af, visserijsterfte stabiel. Advies 2016: 13 957 ton aanlandingen (11 626t IV, 2 330t VIId). ● 25 000 ton vangsten
Presentator
Presentatienotities
ICES advises that when the EU–Norway management strategy is applied, total catches in 2016 should be no more than 25 000 tonnes. If this stock is not under the EU landing obligation in 2016 and discard and industrial bycatch rates do not change from the average (2012-2014), this implies human consumption landings of no more than 13 957 tonnes. 11.626 2.330 Paaistand stabiel, interim beheer tot nieuwe referentiepunten bepaald
Noorse kreeft, advies 2015/2016
Voor Nederland meest interessant, hetzelfde als vorige jaar: Botney Gut & Silver Pit (FU5)
Aanlandingen: 1 043 ton (1159 t vangst)
Off Horn’s Reef (FU33) Aanlandingen: 1 136 ton
Basis: gemiddelde
aanlandingen laatste 10 jaar
verhogen
onveranderd
verlagen
?
?
Presentator
Presentatienotities
Botney Gut: The status of this stock is uncertain although there are no consistent signals that this stock is suffering from over-exploitation. The lack of reliable of length information on this stock in recent years means that there is no information regarding incoming recruitment and the selectivity of the Dutch fleet is such that even with better sampling levels, a recruitment signal is unlikely to be obtained through commercial data. There is considerable contradiction in the LPUE signals over the past 10 years and changes in the fleet compositions make them too unreliable as indicators of stock abundance. Off Horn’s Reef: The available data do not provide any clear signals on stock development: Danish effort began decreasing after 2004. Since then, the LPUE has steadily increased, except for 2010 when LPUE declined slightly. In 2013, new data from the Netherlands became available for the last nine years, and shows a more stable effort. LPUE has slightly decreased for Denmark and increased for the Netherlands in 2014.