UMTS Market Ed10

7/27/2019 UMTS Market Ed10

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3G - UMTS market


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All rights reserved 2000, Alcatel, Paris.MCD/SM December 28th 2000, page n 2

Outline

I - The 3G opportunity: subscribers forecast

II - The estimated cost of infrastructure

III - The cost of 3G licenses

IV - The position of the top 8 pan-European operators

V - The 3G business model challenge


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World-WideSubscriberEvolution

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

3G

GSM

TDMA

CDMA

58%

9%

10%

18%

27%

50%

15%

6%


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0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

3G

GSM

Western EuropeSubscribers

1%

3%

7% 15%25% 38% 53%


5/24All rights reserved 2000, Alcatel, Paris.MCD/SM December 28th 2000, page n 5

0

50

100

150

200

250

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

3G

GSM

North-America Subscribers

3%

15%25%

38% 53%

CDMA

TDMA

19%

42%

32%

7%

0.5%



0

50

100

150

200

250

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

3G

GSM

China Subscribers

30%



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

3G

PDC

Japan Subscribers

1%

5%12%

18% 25%

CDMA

79%

20%

33% 43% 53%


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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

3G

GSM

Rest of the World Subscribers

1%

1.5%

3%

6%

CDMA

TDMA

51%

26%

17%

9%

12%


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Outline







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2000 Total market: 45.4 B$GSM 46 %CDMA 28 %TDMA 14 %PDC 7 %

2000 Worldwide

Infrastructure MobileMarket

US & Canada : 9.7 B$CDMA 52 % (=>CDMA2000)

TDMA 36 % (=>EDGE)

GSM 12 % (=>EDGE/UMTS)

Western Europe: 10 B$GSM 100 % (=>UMTS/EDGE)

China : 4.3 B$GSM 95 % (=>TD-SCDMA)

Japan: 4.9 B$PDC 67 %(=>UMTS)

CDMA 33 %

(=>UMTS/CDMA2000)

Rest of the World : 16.5 B$GSM 35 % (=>UMTS/EDGE)CDMA 36 % (=>CDMA2000/UMTS)

TDMA 18% (=>EDGE)

=> anticipated 3G evolution

NSS+BSS Infrastructure Investments


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World-WideMobile Infrastructure Investments

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

41.4

Billions $

45.4

52.2

61.7

69.174.7

4.717.5(80%)

29.6

(77%)

40.6(75%)

23.7

13.8

6.4

10.5

17.7

21.1

12.7

6.5

GSM

3G

(% UMTS)

CDMA

23.420.9

TDMA

12.711.6

5.7 5.2 4.7

f


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3Ginfrastructure investmentsper region

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Billions $

Western Europe

China

Japan

North America

Rest of World

40.6

4.7

17.5

29.6 14.1

2.7

3

6.5

9

8

12.3

8.7

6

5.8

4

5

1.5

2

1.5

0.3

2

UMTS f


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UMTS infrastructure investmentsper region

2.55

2.5

4

4.5

3

8.7

12.3

14.1

4

3.5

1.5

2.7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Western Europe

China(TD-SCDMA)

Japan

North America

Rest of World

30.6

4.2

14

22.8

0.3

Billions $


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CDMA 2000 infrastructure investmentsper region

Billions $

1.53

3.5

1.8

2

5

1.5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Japan

North America

Rest of World

10

0.5

3.5

6.8

O tli


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Outline







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2000

Japan 3

2001New Zealand

4

2001Australiaregional

2001Canada 4

x 14rgions

2001 Hong Kong4

2001

South Africa 2

2001

Isral 3

2000Korea

2

2001

Malaysia 2/3

2002

UAE 2

2001

China

4

2002

Philippines

5(3+2)

2001Taiwan

52003

Thailand

3

2001Singapore 4

2002

Egypt 2

Awarded

H2 2000

2001

>2002Licence Date

CountryNb licence

(incumbents + New

entrant)*

Auction or Mix

Beauty contest or TBA

2001

Venezuela4

2001

Chile

3

2001Argentina4

2002

USA

3G licences planning


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1999 Finland4(3+1)

2000

Austria

6(4+2)

2001

Greece

4

2000

Switzerlan

d 4(3+1)

2001

Belgium4(3+1)

2002Luxembourg

2

2000Italy

5(3+2)

Awarded

H2 2000

2001

>2002

2001Ireland 3-

4

2002

Hungary 2-

3

2000Lichtenstein

1

Licence Date

CountryNb licence

(incumbents + New

entrant)*

(*) : likely split

Auction or Mix

Beauty contestor TBA

2001

Russia

2/region

2001 Czech

Rep 3

Average price

per Lic in Euro

2000UK

5(4+1)

2000Netherlands

5

2000Germany

6(4+2)

2000Spain

4(3+1)

7.4 B

520 M

8.5 B

2000

Portugal

4(3+1)

100 M131 M

4.9 B

2001 France

4 (3+1)

650m

2000 Poland

3

2001Denmark 4

24.8 M

2000Norway4(2+2)

2000Sweden4(2+2)

2.43 B

139 M

34 M

10 k

3G licences planning : Europe

Outline


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Outline







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Top 8 UMTS bidders

Country BT DTFT New

Orange

KPN/NTT

Docomo/

Hutchison

Te le fonica Telenor Voda fone TIM

Austria Maxmobil HutchisonEuropean

TelecomConnect Ausria Telering

Belgium Mobistar KPNOrange ST3GBelgacom

Mobile

Denmark Mobilix Sonofon

Finland

France SFR Itineris

KPN/NTT

Docomo/

Hutchison

ST3G SFR Bouygues

Germany Viag Interkom T-Mobil Mobilcom Eplus-* Groupe 3G Viag interkom Mannesman-Mobilfunk

Greece Cosmote Panafon

Ireland Esat Digifone Orange Eircom Esat Digifone

Italy WindAndala

(Hutchison)Ipse Omnitel TIM

Luxembourg ST3G

Netherlands Telfort 3Gblue(Ben) Duchtone KPN Libertel

Norway Telenor

Portugal Optimus ONI Way Telecel

Spain Airtel Telefonica Airtel Amena

Sweden Telenordia Mobility 4 Orange/B2 Hutchison Reach Out Telenordia Europolitan

Switzerland Orange ST3G Swisscom

UK Cellnet One2One Orange Hutchison 3g Vodafone

Awarded

in red incumbents mobile operator

in blue new entrants in mobile local market

underlined majority holdings in incumbent operator

* Hutchison out of the consortium in Germany

Forecasted UMTS subscriber market shares


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Forecasted UMTS subscriber market shares

UMTS triggers concentration among mobile operators

which is already effective in GSM

Western Europe

3G Subscribers Year 2005

Market share by Operator

BT

8%DT

8%

Vodafone

15% TIM

6%

Others

16%

FT/New

Orange

17%

Telenor

2%

Telefonica

9%

KPN/Hutchison/NTT

Docomo

11% New Entrants

8%

Total 3G Subscribers 50.3 Millions

Top 8

70%

Outline


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Outline






Revenue increase is key to UMTS


22/24


57

4943 40 39 37

36 35

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Average Revenue per User/ Month ()

Vodafone

Orange

TIM

Info / dataD2

Revenue increase is key to UMTS

profitability

Voice

40

Info/Data

220

What additional revenue will network operators

be able to generate from Info/Data traffic ?

In 2002

Mobile Internet


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Early-Adopters

Conservators

Visionaries

T

Mobile data adoption

Pragmatics

Few UsersTrend setters

Numerous Users

WAP

GPRS

UMTS/

EDGE

Data Evolution phase 1:

Plug-in to transport data

Data Evolution phase 2:

Smooth evolution to bring

Speed and Capacity

2000 2001 2002 2003

Skeptical

Mobile Internet

Market evolution

Mobile Internet will change


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3rd PartyApplication providers

Content

Providers

Content

Aggregators

ServiceProviders

NetworkOperators

UsersTerminals

Delivery

Chain

Mobile Internet will change

the business model

Source : Arthur D.Little : 100% equates to 4060 per subscriber (Western Europe)

Revenues w i l l shi f t fromnetworkservices toappl icat ions and co ntentservices

72%

25%25%23%12%3%

38%2%

GSM UMTS GSM UMTS GSM UMTS GSM UMTS

UMTS Market Ed10

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Transcript of UMTS Market Ed10