8/12/2019 PF1AC (Working)

1/3

8/12/2019 PF1AC (Working)

2/3

office noted after the Obama call, Putin believes this government "is a result of an unconstitutional revolution" and imposed"illegitimate decisions."

Limiting further Russian aggression is key to help Ukraine break away from its energy

dependencesolves the Ukrainian economy

Silverstein 3/3[3 March 2014, Ken Silverstein, MBA in Business from Tulane University and BA in PoliticalScience from Tulane, Forbes, Russian-Ukrainian Conflict Spilling Beyond Borders And Into Natural Gas Markets ,

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kensilverstein/2014/03/03/russian-ukrainian-conflict-spilling-beyond-borders-and-into-natural-gas-markets/]

The Russian and Ukrainian conflict is about freedomnot just to political expression but also to explore neweconomic ties with the western world, which includes finding additional access to lucrative natural gassupplies. Its a battle that extends well beyond the walls of the former Soviet Bloc and into the heart of Europe that has long reliedon Russian natural gasto provide about a quarter of its needs and which a third of it flows through Ukraines

pipelines. Now that Russia has taken military control of the Crimean section of Ukraine,

those conduits are in peril. Russia, meantime, provides anywhere from one-third to one-half of Ukraines natural gas.

And, since 2006, the two nations have had legitimate battles over how to value that vital product.During the early years of that dispute, Russia had wanted to quadruple prices to Ukraine.Recently,though, those natural gas prices are tied to global oil prices and have sold at much greater rates, which has cut Ukraines consumption

of Russian natural gas. Ukraine still subsidizes the gas that it does buy for its own citizens, noting thatwithout such help, its already recession-ridden country would go into an economic tailspin.TheInternational Monetary Fund is reporting that energy subsidies made up 7.5 percent of Ukraines 2012 gross domestic product. The

Ukrainian economy has been in recession since mid-2012, and the outlook remains challenging. In JanuarySeptember 2013 GDPcontracted by 1.25 percent year-over-year, reflecting lower demand for Ukrainian exports and falling investments, says the IMFsDecember 2013 analysis. For the moment, Ukraineand Europe as wellhave gotten a minor reprieve because each has had amild winter. Europe is also warming to U.S. natural gas imports in the form of liquefied natural gas, which can sell for a premiumthere. Its also been shying away, lately, from Russian gas and using more coal. Europe, too, has also won access to a number of new

pipeline routes, or ones that are able to bypass Ukraine and enter the continent other ways. Among them: Pipelines are linking theCaspian Sea, Middle East and North Africa with Continental Europe. Algeria, for example, is increasing the capacity of its export

routes that carry gas into Italy and efforts are also underway to do the same for routes into France and Germany. Ukraine

could ultimately break loose of the natural gas shackles from which Russia has help it

captive. A Washington Post story says that Ukraine has signed deals with Chevron Corp and Royal Dutch Shell to invest as much

as $10 billion into shale gas development in the western part of the country. ExxonMobil, meantime, wants to drill for oil and gas inthe deep water of the Black Sea theresomething that the paper says will have to wait given the uncertainties. Its accurate to say

that the distrust that permeated during Cold War era still exists. But Russia can still be

counted onto act in its self interest . And in this case, the need to grow its own economy and to continue tomarket its natural gas to both Eastern and Western Europe could help soothe things.

The tipping point is NOW- We mustact

VOA 3/1(They are a small cooperative dedicated to providing both local, national, and world news to the public, publishes onMarch 1, 2014,http://www.voanews.com/content/obama-to-putin-russia-is-clearly-breaking-international-law-in-ukraine/1862268.html ,)

U.S. President Barack Obama has held a 90-minute telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin to express what

the White House calls deep concern for what is happening in Ukraine.Officials say Mr.

Obama told the Russian president that Russia is in clear violation of Ukrainiansovereignty and international law.President Obama said the United States is suspending participation in meetings to

prepare for the G8 economic summit later this year in Sochi, Russia, which hosted the Winter Olympic Games.Russian newsagencies say Mr. Putin told the president that Moscow reserves the right to protect ethnic Russians if there is violence in Crimea or

eastern Ukraine.Mr. Obama said the appropriate way to address this matter is by directengagement with the Ukrainian government and through international monitors.PresidentObama also discussed Ukraine with French President Francois Hollande and Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper. The WhiteHouse said the leaders agreed that Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity must be respected.The Pentagon says DefenseSecretary Chuck Hagel spoke with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoygu Saturday. Officials say Hagel told Shoygu that without a

http://www.voanews.com/content/obama-to-putin-russia-is-clearly-breaking-international-law-in-ukraine/1862268.htmlhttp://www.voanews.com/content/obama-to-putin-russia-is-clearly-breaking-international-law-in-ukraine/1862268.htmlhttp://www.voanews.com/content/obama-to-putin-russia-is-clearly-breaking-international-law-in-ukraine/1862268.htmlhttp://www.voanews.com/content/obama-to-putin-russia-is-clearly-breaking-international-law-in-ukraine/1862268.htmlhttp://www.voanews.com/content/obama-to-putin-russia-is-clearly-breaking-international-law-in-ukraine/1862268.htmlhttp://www.voanews.com/content/obama-to-putin-russia-is-clearly-breaking-international-law-in-ukraine/1862268.html

8/12/2019 PF1AC (Working)

3/3