Klimaatverandering: feiten en verwachtingen · Klimaatverandering: feiten en verwachtingen Lezing...
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Klimaatverandering: feiten en verwachtingen Lezing voor Heiloo Energie 17 november 2015 Leo Meyer ClimateContact-Consultancy
Transcript of Klimaatverandering: feiten en verwachtingen · Klimaatverandering: feiten en verwachtingen Lezing...
Klimaatverandering: feiten en verwachtingen
Lezing voor Heiloo Energie 17 november 2015 Leo Meyer
ClimateContact-Consultancy
ç
© John Kudelka
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
IPCC has learned from critisism
‘Climate gate’
2014 led to
improvements in - Management
- Assessment Procedures
- Conflict of Interest Policy
- Communications
Strategy
8 6
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
‘
Summary for Policymakers (SPM)
A report is accepted by the Panel through the approval of its summary (Summary for Policymakers)
Government representatives have to approve all text line by line!
Proposals for changes have to be endorsed by the authors
Full consensus on each and every detail is needed otherwise no report.
Option to ‘footnote’ dissidents
8 7
836 auteurs uit
85 landen
>30,000 lit. referenties
> 5,000 bladzijden
143,000 commentaren
2000 reviewers
14.5 kilo…
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Key Messages IPCC Synthesis Report
➜ Human influence on the climate system is clear
➜ The more we disrupt our climate, the more we
risk severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts
➜ We have the means to limit climate change and
build a more prosperous, sustainable future
AR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM, AR5 WGIII SPM
.”
Neerslag in winters 1971-2010 tov 1902-2010 (NOAA 2011)
“There is evidence that human influences on the climate system are implicated in the current Syrian conflict “ (PNAS March 2015)
“Fertile Crescent”
Bron: Polar science center 2015
Arctisch zee-ijsvolume verdwijnt met ca 15 % per 10 jaar
CO2 gehalte
Temperatuurschommelingen
Dampkring - waterdamp en daarnaast CO2, methaan, lachgas en fluorgassen houden de warmte van de zon vast
Global mean temperature change
Figure SPM.1
“Each of the past 3
decades has been the
warmest since 1850”
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
AR5 SYR SPM
CO2 is the main driver of global warming
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
GHG emissions growth between 2000 and 2010 has been
larger than in the previous three decades
AR5 WGIII SPM
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
“ menselijke invloed 95 % zeker de oorzaak van opwarming “
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Impacts are already underway
• Tropics to the poles
• On all continents and in the ocean
• Affecting rich and poor countries
AR5 WGII SPM
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Projected climate changes
Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further
warming and changes in the climate system
Global glacier volume will further decrease
Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century
It is very likely that the Arctic sea ice cover will continue to shrink and thin as global mean surface temperature rises
Oceans will continue to warm during the 21st century
AR5 WGI SPM
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Potential Impacts of Climate Change
Food and water shortages
Increased poverty
Increased displacement of people
Coastal flooding
AR5 WGII SPM
Stijging zeespiegel
Extreme hitte en droogte bedreigt water- en voedsel beschikbaarheid
Wereldwijde afsterving van koraalriffen – ook door verzuring oceanen door CO2
Without additional mitigation, global mean surface temperature is projected to increase by 3.7 to 4.8 0C over the 21st century…
30
Based on WGII AR5 Figure 19.4
Jim Hansen and co-authors, July 2015:
Ice melt, sea level rise
and super storms:
evidence from paleo-
climate data, climate
modeling, and modern
observations that 2◦ C
global warming is highly
dangerous
Stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations requires moving away from business as usual.
32
Based on Figure 6.7
Lower ambition mitigation goals require similar reductions of GHG emissions.
33
Based on Figure 6.9
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Limiting Temperature Increase to 2˚C
Global GHG emissions reduction of 40-70 % in
2050 compared to 2010
Net zero or negative GHG emissions in 2100
Global emissions to peak within next 5-15 years
AR5 WGIII SPM
Ambitious mitigation is affordable
Bio-Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage
= Negative emissions!
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
The window for action is rapidly closing
65% of our carbon budget compatible with a 2°C goal already used
Amount Used
1870-2011:
1900 GtCO2
Amount
Remaining:
1000 GtCO2
Total Carbon
Budget:
2900 GtCO2
AR5 WGI SPM
Bron: Climate Action Tracker okt 2015
INDCs - plannen voor Parijs
- 162 landen hebben hun plannen voor 2030 ingediend - Samen > 90 % van de broeikasgas
emissies
- => meer reductie gepland dan
verwacht
- => maar we zijn er nog (lang) niet! We stevenen hiermee af op 3 0C
- Bron: Volkskrant van 31 oktober 2015
G-20 top wereldleiders 16 november 2015
Klimaattop Parijs en inzet Nederland- wat moet er uitkomen
Lange termijn doel : operationalisering 2 graden: ‘klimaatneutraal’. EU incl Nederland: minstens -40 % minder BKG binnen EU tov 1990 Wettelijk bindende voortgangsrapportage en controle Niet meer ‘Ontwikkelingslanden versus ontwikkelde landen’ maar ‘ambitieuze landen versus ‘Business as Usual’ landen Financiering: 100 mld/jaar voor ‘klimaatweerbaarheid’ Lima-Paris Action Agenda: non-state actors (NAZCA) Verrdere besluiten nodig voor na Parijs
Klimaatbeleid in Nederland
• Adaptatie • Broeikasgassen: 2020 doelen • Energie-akkoord • Urgenda vonnis
