Kim Rok Data

8/13/2019 Kim Rok Data

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The Application of the LEAPThe Application of the LEAPSoftware Tool to Energy SectorSoftware Tool to Energy Sector

Analysis in the Republic of KoreaAnalysis in the Republic of Korea

East Asia Energy Futures / AsiaEnergy Security Project

5 November, 2003Vancouver, Canada.

Hoseok Kim


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Directions of the StudyDirections of the Study

Applying LEAP software tool to the ROK

Establishing a comprehensive and effective LEAP dataset for the ROK

Assessing the properness of the application and dataset

Projecting future energy outlook based on business-as-usual case

Developing reasonable and meaningful alternative

scenarios

Analyzing the results and implication of the alternative

scenarios


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This presentation will show

How to apply the LEAP software tool to theROKs energy sector.

The structure of ROK2003: An Overview

The obstacles and problems in the application

Possible energy issues being analyzed based

on LEAP ROK data set and ROK2003. Know-how might be shared with other

regional working group


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Organization of the PresentationOrganization of the Presentation

1. ROKs Energy Policy

2. LEAP Modeling in ROK

3. LEAP ROK2003

4. Demand Sector5. Transformation Sector

6. BAU Energy Paths7. Obstacles and Tasks

8. Alternative Scenarios


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1.1. ROKROKss Energy PolicyEnergy Policy


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Energy Policy and Modeling

Various types of energy policy give a

exogenous shock to (inter)national energysystem.

Energy demand & supply

Energy mix

Energy efficiency

The innovation of energy related technologyEnergy models help to foresee the impacts and

to analyze the implications of energy policy.


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ROKs Energy Policy: Problems and

Challenges Maintaining a stable energy supply for enduring

economic growth

Encouraging competition in energy market

Reducing the dependence on oil

Diversification of energy sources

Establishing environment- and climate-friendly energysystem forSustainable Development.

Strengthening the long-run potential for pollution

control Restructuring an energy system with low GHG

emissions


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Directions of ROKs Energy Policy

Sustainable Energy

System To stimulate energy

efficiency

To stabilize energy

supply capacity

Energy Technology

Innovation

To develop energy

technologies

Competitive Energy

Markets To privatize energy

industries

To improve efficiency in

energy market

Regional Cooperation

To diversify energy

sources

To stabilize energy

supply and prices


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2. LEAP Modeling in ROK2. LEAP Modeling in ROK


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Previous Work

Beijing workshop, June 2000

Nautilus provided support in the use of the LEAP software The first national dataset for LEAP was developed.

Berkeley workshop, February 2001

The first rigorous application was made.(ROK2000) The conceptual and analytical understanding was elaborated

in the training session.

Berkeley workshop, January 2002 After the 3rd training workshop ROK2000 was completed.

And the dataset was applied to the LFG generation issue.


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Why LEAP?

There is a huge range of models that can be

used to address energy-related issues, and theyare grouped into three categories:

macroeconometric models, CGE models,

energy-economy models

Energy-economy models, so called bottom-up

models, are technology based models found onengineering relationships..


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Strengths and Weakness of Bottom-Up

ArpproachStrengths of Bottom-up Approach

The capacity to address at a more detailed sectoral andsub-sectoral level the implications of energy policies

on energy system

Weaknesses of Bottom-up Approach The models may fail to adequately capture opportunity

or welfare costs of technological substitution.

The choice of modeling platform depends on the

purpose of analysis.


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LEAP Modeling Platform

LEAP modeling platform

With its flexible structures, LEAP allows theuser to simulate and assess the impacts of

alternative energy policies on energy system-

especially technological fields, and to project

the energy supply and demand situation

As a database, LEAP provides acomprehensive system for maintaining energy

information.


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Best Conditions for Applying LEAP

Modeling PlatformLEAP model is most useful where:

There is insufficient historical macro-economicdata for trend analysis

There are significant technological changes in

energy sector. There are short-run development problems

There is a need to disaggregate energy uses. There is a strong policy scheme that is shaping

the national energy system.


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Energy Modeling in the ROK

Macroeconometric Models

CGE Models KEED (Korea Energy Environmental Dynamic

GE Model, KEEI)

Energy-Economy Models

KEEI Model, EFOM-Env (Korea Energy

Economics Institute) MARKAL (Korea Institute of Energy Research)

META-Net, LEAP (Yonsei University)


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3. LEAP ROK2003: An Overview3. LEAP ROK2003: An Overview


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LEAP ROK Models

ROK1998 (LEAP v.95)

Highly aggregated but simple and intuitive ROK2000 (LEAP v.2000)

Highly disaggregated but complex and with

uncertainties in BAU paths

ROK2003 (LEAP v.2003))

Less disaggregated than ROK2000 but withreasonable and rigorous BAU paths


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Determinants of Model Structure

The purpose of analysis

The modes of shock Methodological approach of the analysis

Time horizon Geographical coverage

Sectoral coverage

Data restriction or availability


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ROK Models

The purpose is to assess the recent ROKs energy

policy scheme and its regional implication

Shock: Policies on energy demand, supply, and

technological change

Methodology: LEAP software (scenario analysis) Time horizon: 2000-2015 (medium-term)

Geographical coverage: National model

Sectoral coverage: Energy sector

Data availability: Quite good!


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The Structure of ROK2003

ROK 2003

DEMAND

SECTORS

TRANSFORMATION

SECTORRESOUCE

Residential

Industrial

Commercial & Public

Transportation

Electricity Generation

District Heating

Town Gas Production

LNG Gasification

SECONDARYElectricity , Town Gas

Natural Gas, Heat

PRIMARY

Coal, Gasoline

Diesel, KeroseneFuel oil, LPG

Naphtha, LNG

Nuclear, Hydro


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ROK2002 Model Diagram


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Current Status of ROK2003

Well equipped with key data, parameters, and

BAU path Highly disaggregated in residential demand,

transportation and transformation sectors

Well structured to be applied in electricity

generation and transportation analysis

Two alternative scenarios are under developingin the climate policy context


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Key Data Gaps

Small Electricity Appliances

Renewable Energy Uses Mass transit & freight: BAU path

Air Transportation Heat Production of CHP

Electricity Production of HOB

Oil Refining Process

Domestic Coal Mining


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Key Data Sources

Ministry of Commerce, Industry, and Energy

Korea Energy Economics Institute Korea National Statistical Office

Korea Development Institute

The Bank of Korea

Korea Electric Power Corporation

Korea District Heating Corporation Korea Coal Corporation

Korea Gas Corporation


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4. Demand Sector4. Demand Sector


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The Structure of Demand Sector

DEMAND SECTOR

RESIDENTIAL TRANSPORTATION INDUSTRIAL COMMERCIAL & PUBLIC

Cooking

Space HeatingLighting

Appliances

Household Vehicles

Mass Transit & Freight

Agriculture & Fishery

Mining

Manufacturing

Construction

Commercial Sector

Public Sector


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Energy Balance: TFE

2,6261,16022229-1,141-PUBLIC

32,4147,8911,0979,0244913,487718RESIDENT

30,999175-30,824-TRANSP

83,13511,3743,30820747,20919,129INDUSTRIAL

149,17320,6001,11912,56125692,66019,847FINAL

TotalElectHeatTown GasLNGPetcoalUNIT: 000

TOE


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Final Energy Demand in 2000

150

100%

2.1

1.4%

1.1

0.7%

20.6

13.7%

12.6

8.4%

93.6

62.4%

19.8

13.2%Total

20.6%31.0000.2030.80Transportation

1.7%2.6001.20.21.10Public &

Others

21.6%32.40.21.17.99.013.50.7Residential &

Commercial

56.0%83.91.9011.43.348.219.1Industrial

TotalRenew

ableHeat

Electri

city

Town

Gas

Petrol

eumCoal(M TOE)

E l ti f 1984 t 2002 f TFE b


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Evolution from 1984 to 2002 of TFE by

Sector

010,000

20,000

30,000

40,00050,000

60,000

70,000

80,00090,000

100,000

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

KT

OE

Industrial

Res & Com

Transportation

Public

E l ti f 1984 t 2002 f TFE b


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Evolution from 1984 to 2002 of TFE by

Fuel

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

KT

OE

Coal

PetroleumTown Gas

Electricity

Others


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End-Uses of Residential Sector

Refrigerator, Rice cooker, Air conditioner, TV,

PC, Electric stove, Kimchi Refrigerator,

Washing machine, Vacuum cleanerELECTRICITYAPPLIANCES

Town Gas Stove

LPG Stove

LPG

Town GasCOOKING

Incandescent bulbs

Fluorescent bulbs

Other bulbs

ELECTRICITYLIGHTING

Boilers

District Heating

COAL, GAS,HEAT, OIL,

ELECTRICITY

HEATING

DEVICEFUEL TYPEEND USES


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Residential Sector

0.2Coal

0.4Electricity

0.9Oil

46.3LPG

51.3Town gas

Cooking

1.5Coal

1.6Electricity

3.4LPG

6.4District

37Town gas

48.6Oil

Heating


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Industrial Sector


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Commercial & Public Sector

29.5829.5328.8228.66K TOE/M

m^2

Energy

Intensity

1,075928725473M m^2Floor Space

31,80427,39920,90013,558K TOEEnergy Use

2030202020102000


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Transportation Sector

17,82411,731,000Sum

5,2682,254,000Truck

2,5421,284,000Bus

972522,000SUV

9,0427,671,000Cars

Fuel Use

(Ktoe)

Vehicle

PopulationHousehold

2,13869,170Bus

13,616546,328Sum

4927,297Rail

6,1911,827Marine

2,815235,791Truck

1,927232,243Taxi

Fuel Use

(Ktoe)

Vehicle

Population

MassTran &

Freight


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5. Transformation Sector5. Transformation Sector


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Transformation Sector

Transformation

Electric

Generation

Town Gas

Production

District

Heating

Coal, Fuel Oil

Diesel, Natural Gas

Hydro

Nuclear

LPG

Natural Gas

Natural Gas

Town Gas

Fuel Oil

LPG

Gasification

LNG


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Energy Balance: Transformation

179

-

12,52012,387312-

Town

Gas

532

-

355120436331-Heat

39,54127,2411,402

-

22,910

-

8091085,4036,04223,064

Electrici

ty

192,88827,2411,40218,924100,28042,911

PRIMA

RY

TotalNuclea

rHydroElectHeat

Town

GasLNGPetcoal

UNIT:

000

TOE


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Data on Generation Facilities

42.441,5441,346N.A.Nuclear

1.212,024617N.A.Hydro

9.516,53650544.15Combined

0.169,8401,15437.2Internal

0.6--35.68LNG

7.421,61280037.45Oil

38.732,62892039.25Coal

Output

Share (%)

O&M Cost

(KRW/kW)

Capital Cost

(K KRW/kW)

Efficiency

(%)


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Electric Generation by Fuel

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

G

W

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Trend of Electric Generation

Internal

Combined

LNG

Oil

Coal

Nuclear

Hydro


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6. BAU Energy Path6. BAU Energy Path

A ti f BAU P th


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Assumptions of BAU Path

GDP: 4.9% annual growth rate for the years 2000-15

Population: 0.6% annual growth rate

Households: 1.5% annual growth rate

Residential

Expansion of town gas use and district heating

Disappearance of LPG and coal uses

Industrial

Decrease of the share of industrial GDP

Decrease of manufacturing and increase of construction

Commercial & Public

Increase of floorspace in commercial and public sector


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Electricity Generation Capacity

Stable maintenance of nuclear Expansion of CHP

Reduction of coal and oil generation

Increase of LNG gasification facilities

Expansion of district heating area

Enlargement of town gas-using households

M j D hi D t O tl k


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Major Demographic Data Outlook

POPULATION

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Thousand

PER

SO

HOUSEHOLDS

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

ThousandHousehold

Person per Household

-

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Persons

GDP O tl k


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GDP Outlook

GDP

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Billion

199

5W

Fi l E D d BAU


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Final Energy Demand: BAU

Energy Supply of Transformation


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gy pp y

Sector

Imports of Primary Energy: BAU


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Imports of Primary Energy: BAU

Electricity Generation: BAU


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Electricity Generation: BAU

Global Warming Potential: Demand :


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BAU

Global Warming Potential:


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Transformation : BAU

Examining the Results: TFE & TPES


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Examining the Results: TFE & TPES


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Projected TFE in 2015: 226.9 Mtoe

MOCIEs outlook: 231.7 Mtoe

Accounts for 97%

Projected TPES in 2015: 254.7 Mtoe

MOCIEs outlook: 288.4 Mtoe

Accounts for 88.3%

BAU paths describe ROKs energy system quite well.


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Introduction and expansion of Natural Gas

Vehicle (NGV)

Introduction and expansion of LFG generation

Expansion of compact household vehicles

Introduction of fuel cell

Changes in energy/environmental technology

Structural change in electricity sector

Various regional cooperations

Future Work


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Future Work

Developing future energy scenarios

Collecting and supplementing missing data Trying plausible structural modifications

Updating the dataset (20002001)

Disaggregating major (sub)sectors

Kim Rok Data

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