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IHS Aerospace, Defence & Security Capabilities BriefingGlobal Warming: Arctic militarisation gathers pace

© 2014 IHS 2

IHS Capabilities Brief ing | Arctic Forces

Tiksi

Alert

North Pole

Andoya

Anderma

Iqaluit

Thule AFB

Nikolskoye

Nagurskoye

Provideniye

Arkhangelsk

Yellowknife

Rankin Inlet Resolute Bay

Rudolf Island

Eareckson AFS

Kotelny Island

Nanisivik

PAKISTANAFGHANISTAN0 1,200 km

© 2014 IHS: 1521361

UNITED STATESCANADA

JAPAN

RUSSIA

SOUTHKOREA

NORTHKOREA

GREENLAND

Canada territorial sea and EEZ

Potential Canada continental shelf beyond 200nmDenmark territorial sea and EEZ

Denmark claimed continental shelf beyond 200nm

Potential Denmark continental shelf beyond 200nm

Iceland EEZ

Iceland claimed continental shelf beyond 200nm

Norway claimed continental shelf beyond 200nm

Russia claimed continental shelf beyond 200nm

USA territorial sea and EEZ

Overlapping Norway/Russia EEZ

Overlapping Norway EEZ/Russia claimed continental shelf beyond 200nm

Overlapping Norway/Russia claimed continental shelf beyond 200nm

Potential USA continental shelf beyond 200nm

Russia territorial sea and EEZ

Norway territorial sea and EEZ / Fishery zone Jan Mayen / Fishery protection zone (Svalbard)

Planned military facilitiesExisting military facilities

RogachevoSVALBARD AND

JAN MAYEN

Major military installations in the Arctic

Inuvik

Clear AFSWhitehorse

Eielson AFB

FortGreely

Fort Wainwright

Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson

Pevek

Anadyr

Cape Schmidt

Nadym

Dudinka

Pechenga

Naryan-Mar

Vorkuta Sovietsky

Sortland (Norwegian coast guard)

Kangerlussuaq

Murmansk

Source: IHS, EEZ data courtesy of International Boundaries Research Unit, Durham University (http://www.durham.ac.uk/ibru/resources/arctic).

Push for Arctic resources

The latter half of 2013 brought a number of developments on the Arctic front. In November, the United States published its first ever Arctic Strategy, which called for improvement of country’s capabilities to operate in this theatre. The following month the Canadian government announced it would stake a claim over the North Pole with the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS). Concurrently, Canada will be seeking to enhance its capabilities to project military force and sustain presence in the Arctic. Both of these developments were met with a determined Russian response, the most significant of which was bringing forward of the creation of an Arctic Group of Forces from 2020 to 2014.

These pronouncements, however, should not be seen in vacuum. As the Arctic ice-cap decreases, the potential for new energy and maritime-related activity increases. In 2013, the usage of the Northwest passage along the coast of Canada and the Northern Sea Route (NSR) along the coast of Russia marked the first known instance of vessel using both passages in the same season. With the Arctic holding up to 20% of the world’s remaining technically recoverable hydrocarbons, the push for resources should be seen as a main driving force behind the militarisation of the theatre, which looks increasingly unavoidable.

Military Capabilities

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IHS Capabilities Brief ing | Arctic Forces

Borey-class strategic missile submarine

Source: IHS © 2014 IHS: 1521356

Flank Array

16 × Bulava 30 (RSM-56) submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM)*

Mine avoidance sonar

6 x 533mm bow tubes for launching six RPK-2 Viyuga (SS-N-15) missiles

• Since Russian expedition planted its country’s flag on Arctic seabed in August 2007, Moscow has been trying to transform the Arctic into ‘leading strategic base for natural resources’ with success in the region directly correlated with Russia’s ‘wealth and competitiveness in the global markets’.

• Currently, Russia fields one Arctic capable infantry brigade, although it plans to establish a second unit in the near future. In December 2013 President Vladimir Putin also brought forward the creation of an Arctic Group of Forces (Army Group) from 2020 to 2014. It will use pre-positioned equipment and operate in cadre form, rather than station large units permanently inpolar conditions.

• Russian Arctic deployment is supported by Tu-142 long-range anti-submarine warfare (ASW) and Il-38 medium-range ASW aircraft, which have been conducting regular patrol missions since February 2013. Altogether, 30 patrol missions were conducted throughout 2013, with tempo expected to increase in 2014.

• Search and rescue (SAR) capabilities are also being address, which was marked with opening of a SAR facility in Naryan-Mar on the Barents Sea in August 2013. Similar facilities are earmarked for construction along the NSR in Murmansk, Arkhangelsk, Dudinka, Pevek, Vorkuta, Nadym, Anadyr, Tiksi, and Provideniye.

• Russia will also modernise its existing fleet of ballistic missile submarines (SSBN), including newly built Borey-class (Project 955/955A) vessels, which will include enhanced rapid surfacing capability allowing vessels to surface quicker through thick ice without any damage to submarines’ structure, including sonar systems and torpedo tubes. Six vessels have been ordered with two units already handed over to the navy.

Russia

Displacement 19,400 t

Length 170 m

Beam 13.5 m

Draft 9 m

Speed (submerged) 25 kt

Crew 107

*May also carry 3M-54 Klub-S SLCMs

Military Capabilities

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IHS Capabilities Brief ing | Arctic Forces

Future Arctic Offshore Patrol Ship

Source: IHS © 2014 IHS: 1521357

AOPS requirements include:

Polar Class 5 international ice classification standard to allow operations in first year ice up to one metre thick; Endurance of up to four months;Cruising speed of at least 14 knots and a maximum speed of at least 17 knots;Range of at least 6,800 nautical miles at 14 knots;Gun armament (now looks to be one 25 mm gun); Capable of embarking multiple small boats and a helicopter, including the Cyclone.

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• Canada is making a concerted effort to reinforce and strengthen its Arctic sovereignty, including control of its extended continent shelf and the Northwest Passage. To this end, the Canadian military is aiming to enhance its capability to project force to and sustain presence in the Arctic, something which is currently limited.

• Joint Task Force North is the only permanent Canadian military presence in the Arctic at this time. The task force includes the 1st Canadian Ranger Patrol Group with 1,750 Rangers in 60 patrols spread across the Arctic and the 440 Transport Squadron, which has four Twin Otters capable of landing on snow and tundra.

• The Royal Canadian Navy (RCN) currently has limited capability to operate in the Arctic. It has no ice-breakers, its surface combatants are not ice-strengthened, and the Victoria-class submarines do not have an under-ice capability. There are also no refueling facilities in the Arctic that would allow ships to stay on station for an extended period of time.

• The Canadian Forces are establishing a special 500-strong regular army unit for Arctic operations. In addition, four Arctic Response Company Groups, drawn from reserve forces, are being trained. To support these efforts, an Arctic Training Centre opened at Resolute Bay in August 2013. The facility will also host prepositioned equipment.

• The Royal Canadian Navy is procuring six to eight Arctic Offshore Patrol Ships (AOPS), the first of which is to be delivered in 2018. While the ships will not have the ability to break heavy ice, they will be able to undertake operations in first-year ice. In addition, a naval berthing and refueling hub is being constructed at Nanisivik and expected to be operational in 2016.

Canada

Military Capabilities

Endurance (months) 4

Cruising speed (min knots) 14

Cruising speed (max knots) 17

Range (nautical miles) 6,800

Range (knots) 14

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IHS Capabilities Brief ing | Arctic Forces

Virginia-class attack submarine

Source: IHS © 2014 IHS: 1521358

TB-16 and TB-23/29(A) passive towed arrays

BQG-5A wide aperture flank

High frequency active keel and fin (sail) arrays

Bow spherical active/passive array

4 x 21 in (533 mm) tubes for Mk 48 ADCAP

Mod 5/6/7 torpedoes*WLY-1 acoustic intercept

12 vertical launch tubes for Tomahawk Block IV submarine-

launched cruise missiles*

• The United States Department of Defense’s (DOD) first ever Arctic Strategy, which was released in November 2013, calls for the evolution of Arctic infrastructure and capabilities consistent with changing conditions in that part of the world. However, for the United States, projection, not presence, dominates the strategic approach to the Arctic and the region remains peripheral to the US strategic posture.

• The US armed forces have many assets that can be brought to bear in a broad range of environments, including in the Arctic. In contrast, it has very few niche Arctic capabilities. Some large assets do include Arctic-specific design features, in particular the navy’s nuclear attack submarines. However, no United States Navy (USN) surface combatants are ice-strengthened.

• The United States has access to the excellent facilities at Thule Airbase in Greenland and there are significant US Army and Air Force units in Alaska. The Alaskan-based forces include active fighter, airlift, and rescue squadrons, in addition to an airborne infantry Brigade Combat Team and a Stryker Brigade Combat Team. However, these assets are not specifically earmarked for Arctic operations.

• The DOD’s Arctic Strategy is based on an assessment that there is a low level of military threat in the region and it openly acknowledges that the level of Arctic ambitions will be contingent on global priorities and fiscal constraints. In order to hedgeagainst these risks, the DOD’s emphasis will be on innovative and low-cost, ways to accomplish national goals in the Arctic.

• The US Navy is researching ways of making its vessels more capable of operations in the far north. That said, the US strategy explicitly relies on sub-surface and aerial assets to make up for deficiencies in surface capabilities and provide assured access in the ice zones. The US Air Force, meanwhile, is planning to place two military satellites into orbit as part of an Enhanced Polar System to provide secure communications above 65°N, which are currently limited. This will enable existing assets to be better employed in northern latitudes.

United States

Displacement 7,925 t

Length 114.8 m

Beam 10.4 m

Draft 9.3 m

Speed (submerged) 34 kt

Crew 150

*Total load of about 38 missile - or torpedo - sized weapons

Military Capabilities

Knud Rasmussen-class arctic patrol ship

Source: IHS © 2014 IHS: 1521359

Terma Scanter 4100 Radar

Furuno FAR-2117 Radar

Oto Melara 76mm Gun

Evolved Sea Sparrow Missile 1

Platform for one medium helicopter

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IHS Jane’s Capabilities Briefing | Arctic Forces

• Arctic operations are led by the navy under the Joint Arctic Command (JAC), established in October 2012, and replaced the previous two separate Greenland and Faroe Island commands.

• Currently, Denmark deploys the Sirius sledge patrol unit, two-man teams operating in High North and East of Greenland to maintain Danish sovereignty and police areas of responsibility.

• The country also deploys two 1,720 ton, 61 metre ice-capable offshore patrol vessels (OPV), HDMS Knud Rasmussen and HDMS Ejnar Mikkelsen, commissioned in 2008 and 2009 respectively, as well as two ice breakers. Order for a third OPV was made in 2014 with the vessel expected to be delivered in 2017.

• These are augmented by Greenland 721 squadron detachment of one Challenger 604 surveillance aircraft for fishery protection and maritime patrol. Naval facilities will remain the same but the finalised procurement of 9 Sikorsky MH-60R SeaHawk helicopters, agreed in December 2012, will give naval forces greater flexibility to operate in the Arctic region once they enter service from 2016.

• Increased resources will be directed the army and navy’s Special Forces Hunter and Frogman corps, aimed at developing a range of Arctic specific skills. The existing units are expected to grow in size from around 150 to 300 personnel.

Denmark

Weight (full load) 2,050 t

Length 71.8 m

Beam 14.6 m

Draft 4.95 m

Speed 17 kt

Crew 18*

*25 spare berths for embarked forces

Military Capabilities

Fridtjof Nansen-class frigate

Source: IHS © 2014 IHS: 1521360

NHIndustries NH90 NFH (NATO Frigate Helicopter)

2 Mk 82 (SPG-62); I/J-band

2 Mk 82 (SPG-62); I/J-band

RIM-162 Evolved SeaSparrow Missile

Oto Melara 76 mm gun

8 Kongsberg Naval Strike Missile

BAE Systems Stingray Mod 1Lockheed Martin

SPY-1F Radar

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IHS Jane’s Capabilities Briefing | Arctic Forces

• Norway’s activity in the Arctic is markedly different from Denmark and is shaped by the coastal geography and proximity to the Russian territories in the North.

• A focus for Norwegian capability in the Arctic has been Russia, including the deployment of aircraft to cover the Northern NATO defence zone.

• Arctic assets for Norway include the recently upgraded Lockheed Martin P-3 Orion providing anti-submarine warfare and search and rescue coverage from Andøya Air Station. A move towards larger vessels has given Norway a blue water capability from their new Fridtjof Nansen-class frigates. These will be supported by a new research and surveillance ship, Marjata, which is due to be delivered in 2014.

• An ‘Arctic Battalion’ was announced in 2012 and will effectively rename and re-equip 2nd Battalion to meet planned Russian expansion on the Russian-Norwegian border

• Overall, Norwegian policy is dictated by the Sofia Moria declaration and a pursuit of legal rights in the far North. The CLOS is so widely observed or ratified that it will be hard to see how any violation of these rights would be tolerated by the international community. The position of Norway in regard to NATO’s interests in the region means it will look to bolster any defensive measures with the alliance’s blessing.

Norway

Displacement (full load) 5,375 t

Length 133.2 m

Beam 16.8 m

Draft 4.9 m

Speed 26 kt

Crew 170*

*26 spare berths for embarked forces

Military Capabilities

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IHS Capabilities Brief ing | Arctic Forces

GREENLAND

RUSSIA

ICELAND FINLAND

SWEDEN

CANADA

ALASKA

Arctic Ocean

NORWAY

Northwest passage

Future Central Arctic shipping route

Northeast passage

Existing project

Recent activity

© 2014 IHS

Major energy projects and Arctic maritime routes

Energy and Maritime Perspective

© 2014 IHS 9

IHS Capabilities Brief ing | Arctic Forces

Even though still in explorative stages, the sea around the arctic is opening up to commercial shipping. Over past few years the Northern Sea Route has seen an increase in voyages, mainly driven by the reduced distance in the voyages. Additionally, 2013 saw the first significant voyage made through the Northwest Passage. The number of voyages on both of these routes is likely to increase until around 2040 when a ‘central corridor’ is expected to open during summer months.

However, vital to keeping these routes open are fleets of ice-breakers, which will serve as escorts. Currently, only the Russians (with 6 operational ships), the Americans and Canadians with 1 vessel each and the Finnish have suitable ships for this duty. These are all operated by the government authorities, who have taken upon the responsibility of navigationable seaways.

Energy and Maritime Perspective

Representative Exploration Well Costs for Active Offshore Basins

Sea-going Icebreaker Fleet by Nationality

Authors: Konrad Muzyka, Europe and CIS Armed Forces AnalystDylan Lee Lehrke, Americas Armed Forces AnalystIan Keddie, Europe Armed Forces Analyst Claudia Belahmidi, Senior Energy AnalystKrispen Atkinson, Principal Maritime Analyst

Mark Newton, Designer Carolina Lorenzo, DesignerAlexander von Rosenbach, Armed Forces Editor

The Arctic holds about 20% of the world’s remaining technically recoverable oil and gas, most of that is found in Russia. With technology available today, a major ramp up in Arctic production could be only 10 years away, but the speed of development depends on a number of factors, such as oil price and thawing.

In the short-term, Arctic exploration timelines tend to favour state players or those with the cash flows to cover large capital programmes – a circumstance which has seen smaller players looking to farmouts in the region in order to forge strong partnerships and capitalise on their otherwise often idle acreage financially. In the long-term, though, the Arctic is a hydrocarbon region that requires high commodity prices to justify the cost of exploration there.

This Capability Briefing draws on analysis and data from:

• IHS Jane’s Military & Security Assessments Intelligence Centre. To learn more visit www.ihs.com/jmsa

• IHS Energy. To learn more visit www.ihs.com/energy

• IHS Maritime Insight & Information. To learn more visit www.ihs.com/maritime

• IHS Jane’s Defence, Equipment & Technology Intelligence Centre. To learn more, visit www.ihs.com/jdet

Front cover image: Canadian APC participating in ’Arctic Rim’ exercise in February 2012 Canadian DND