Freight market chartpack 2016 Sample

Freight Market

Dec 2016

This report has been produced for general information. Whilst care has been taken in the

production of this report, no liability or responsibility can be accepted for any loss incurred in any

way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information contained herein.

Contact : Daejin Lee / [email protected] / www.JinreSearch.com

mailto:[email protected]

Baltic Dry Index & Forward Freight Agreement

2

Spot Market Oct 2016 Nov 2016 Dec 2016 Monthly % YTD Yearly %

C5TC 11,576 14,706 9,665 ▼34% 7388 ▼9%

P4TC 6,596 9,319 10,298 ▲41% 5562 ▲0%

S6TC 7,214 8,170 9,869 ▲13% 6236 ▼10%

H6TC 6,096 6,656 8,212 ▲9% 5214 ▼3%

Dry Bulk Earning Av. 7,870 9,713 9,511 ▼2% 6100 ▼6%

FFA Market Oct 2016 Nov 2016 Dec 2016 Monthly % YTD Yearly %

BDI 867 1072 1050 ▼2% 673 ▼6%

Cal 2016 639 662 674 ▲2% 602 ▼31%

Cal 2017 719 763 791 ▲4% 697 ▼26%

Cal 2018 819 834 858 ▲3% 803 ▼22%

Cal 2019 896 901 920 ▲2% 882 ▼19%

※ Source: Baltic Exchange, HJS

BDI 1100

Cal17 800Cal18 900

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

May-14 Oct-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 Jan-16 Jun-16 Nov-16

PtBDI Cal17 Cal18 Cal19

* 10 days moving average graph



Weighted Dry Index

3※ Source: Baltic Exchange, HJS

Weighted Earning Oct 2016 Nov 2016 Dec 2016 Monthly % YTD Yearly %

Trans Pacific 7603 8225 6920 ▼16% 5548 ▼3%

Trans Atlantic 8082 12115 12749 ▲5% 6605 ▼2%

Fronthaul 11785 14737 14959 ▲2% 9989 ▼%

Backhaul 4376 5153 5065 ▼% 2603 ▲20%

Weighted Dry Index 804 947 959 ▲1% 637 ▼4%

BCPI(commodity price) 986 1087 1115 ▲3% 866 ▼3%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16

($/day)(Pt.) Weighted Dry Index (left) BDI

Pacific Earning Atlantic Earning

Earning by size Oct 2016 Nov 2016 Dec 2016 Monthly % YTD Yearly %

Capesize 11696 14761 9547 ▼35% 7410 ▲0%

Panamax 6704 9048 9548 ▲6% 5468 ▲1%

Supramax 6710 7195 8437 ▲17% 5817 ▼11%

Handysize 6117 6534 7882 ▲21% 5150 ▼3%

Total Av. 7870 9713 8693 ▲1% 5776 ▼4%



Baltic Dry Index

WDI(Weighted Dry Index) & BCPI(Bulk Commodity Price Index)


300

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16

(Pt)Weighted Dry Index Bulk Commodity Price Index

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

(pts)

BDI 2013 2014 20152016 FFA17



Earning Spread by Basin (Atlantic – Pacific)

Earning Spread by Size (Cape/PMX, PMX/SMX, SMX/HSZ)


-8000

-4000

0

4000

8000

12000

1-13 7-13 1-14 7-14 1-15 7-15 1-16 7-16

CAPE

PMX

SMX

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16

Cape/PMX

PMX/SMX

SMX/HANDY



Capesize C5TC & Forward Freight Agreement

6


Trans Pacific 11174 13715 8880 ▼35% 6964 ▲1%

Trans Atlantic 12191 18138 11683 ▼36% 7396 ▲0%

Fronthaul 18445 23344 15725 ▼33% 13689 ▼12%

Backhaul 6260 7288 3956 ▼46% 1176 N/A

C5TC Average 11576 14706 9665 ▼34% 7222 ▼9%


4Q 2016 10895 12587 12151 ▼3% 10192 ▼22%

1Q 2017 5674 6680 6728 ▲7% 5500 ▼27%

2Q 2017 7115 7534 7355 ▼2% 7415 ▼11%

Current Year 7102 7522 7414 ▼1% 6752 ▼27%

Next Year 8652 9215 9069 ▼2% 8514 ▼23%


17@8,000

5TC 12,000

18@10,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000


$ per dayC5TC Cal17 Cal18




Capesize 5TC average

Capesize Fronthaul Route (Baltic C9)


0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000


($/day)

CAPE FH 2013 2014 2015 2016

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000


CAPE 2013 2014 2015

2016 FFA17

($/day)



Capesize Trans Atlantic Route (Baltic C8)

Capesize Trans Pacific Route (Baltic C10)


0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000


($/day)

CAPE TA 2013 2014 2015 2016

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000


($/day)

CAPE TP 2013 2014 2015 2016



Panamax P4TC & Forward Freight Agreement

9


Trans Pacific 6794 7809 7412 ▼5 5171 ▲2%

Trans Atlantic 6837 12496 14218 ▲14% 6145 ▲3%

Fronthaul 11489 14335 15677 ▲9% 9815 ▼8

Backhaul 1263 2635 3885 ▲47% 1118 ▲105%

P4TC Average 6596 9319 10298 ▲11% 5562 ▲0%


4Q 2016 6600 7782 8896 ▲14% 6265 ▼10%

1Q 2017 4980 6020 6854 ▲14% 5102 ▼12%

2Q 2017 6102 6644 6949 ▲5% 6235 ▼8%

Current Year 5078 5374 5649 ▲5% 4925 ▼20%

Next Year 5983 6488 6937 ▲7% 5766 ▼17%


17@ 6500

4TC 5500

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000


$ per dayP4TC Cal17 Cal18




Panamax 4TC average

Panamax Fronthaul Route (Baltic P2A)


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000


PMX FH 2013 2014 2015 2016($/day)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000


PMX 2013 2014 2015

2016 FFA17

($/day)



Panamax Trans Atlantic Route (P1A)

Panamax Trans Pacific Route (Baltic P3A)


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000


PMX TA 2013 2014 2015 2016($/day)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000


PMX TP 2013 2014 2015 2016($/day)



Supramax S6TC & Forward Freight Agreement

12


Trans Pacific 6192 5648 5683 ▲1% 5190 ▼14%

Trans Atlantic 7360 10243 14375 ▲40% 6895 ▼6%

Fronthaul 10854 12601 15396 ▲22% 9586 ▼1%

Backhaul 4450 4189 4021 ▼4% 3271 ▼32%

S6TC Average 7214 8170 9869 ▲21% 6236 ▼10%


4Q 2016 7294 7736 8380 ▲8% 6516 ▼17%

1Q 2017 5256 6039 6753 ▲12% 5245 ▼16%

2Q 2017 6362 6581 6798 ▲3% 6278 ▼10%

Current Year 5986 6054 6163 ▲2% 5529 ▼25%

Next Year 6244 6531 6811 ▲4% 5904 ▼19%


17@6,000

6TC 7,000

18@7,000

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000


$ per dayS6TC Cal2017 Cal2018




Supramax 6TC average

Supramax Fronthaul Route


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000


SMX FH 2015 2013 2014 2015($/day)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000


SMX 2013 2014 2015

2016 FFA17

($/day)



Supramax Trans Atlantic Route

Supramax Trans Pacific Route


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000


SMX TA 2013 2014 2015 2016($/day)

0

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5,000

7,500

10,000

12,500

15,000


SMX TP 2013 2014 2015 2016($/day)



Handysize H6TC & Forward Freight Agreement

15


Trans Pacific 6252 5728 5704 ▼0% 4735 ▼2%

Trans Atlantic 5940 7584 10719 ▲41% 5692 ▼4%

Am-Conti 6350 8668 13039 ▲50% 6728 ▼15%

Conti-Am 5529 6499 8400 ▲29% 4656 ▲18%

H6TC Average 6096 6656 8212 ▲23% 5214 ▼3%


4Q 2016 6017 6221 6816 ▲10% 6516 ▼14%

1Q 2017 4850 5127 6997 ▲17% 5245 ▼6%

2Q 2017 5244 5447 5824 ▲7% 6278 ▼10%

Current Year 5001 5052 5200 ▲3% 5529 ▼20%

Next Year 5186 5442 5871 ▲8% 5904 ▼18%


Cal17 5,200

H6TC 6000Cal18 5800

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000


$ per dayH6TC Cal2016 Cal2017




Handysize 6TC average

Handysize Fronthaul Route


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000


Handy FH 2015 2013 2014 2016($/day)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000


Handy 2013 2014 2015

2016 FFA17

($/day)



Handy Trans Atlantic Route

Handy Trans Pacific Route


0

5,000

10,000

15,000


Handy TA 2013 2014 2015 2016($/day)

0

2,500

5,000

7,500

10,000

12,500


Handy TP 2013 2014 2015 2016($/day)



18

Thank you

Previous Reports : includes freight forecasts

(1) Bulk Supply : The Seeds of Recovery

(2) Tanker Supply : Oil Prices and Oversupply)

(3) Coal Trade Market : The end of the coal era, soon or yet?

(4) Iron Ore Trade Market : Chinese steel market

(5) Understanding Bulk Shipping Market

(6) Shippnig Market Chartpack

(7) Shipping Supply Chartpack

We invite any comments and/or questions you may have. If you need bespoke reports & analysis, we would love to meet specific client needs. To discuss any individual requirements please contact below

Daejin Lee / Commodity Research / Shipping / FFA

Mob: +82-10-3462-5311

Email: [email protected]

This report has been produced for general information. Whilst care has been taken in the production of this report, no liability or responsibility can be accepted for any loss incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information contained herein. The information in this report may not be reproduced without the written permission.

본 자료에 수록된 내용은 당사에서 수집한 자료 및 정보를 기초로 작성된 것이나 당사가 그 자료및 정보의 정확성이나 안정성을 보장할 수는 없으므로 어떠한 경우에도 본 자료는 투자의 결과에대한 법적 책임 소재에 대한 증빙 자료로 사용될 수 없습니다. 본 자료에 첨부된 모든 자료는 당사의 저작물로서 당사의 동의 없이 어떤 형태로든 복제, 배포, 전송, 변형할 수 없습니다.




Freight market chartpack 2016 Sample

Data & Analytics

Transcript of Freight market chartpack 2016 Sample