Effectuation 02

29
Effectuation 2 maandag 29 oktober 12

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Transcript of Effectuation 02

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Effectuation 2

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Effectuation

• 4 principes

• non predictive control

• “bird in hand”

• “crazy quilt”

• “lemonade”

• 1 process

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Verwachtingen

• jullie gebruiken het denkproces van effectuation om verder te komen waar planning niet mogelijk is

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Little by little, wean yourself. This is the gist of what I have to say.

From an embryo, whose nourishment comes in the blood, move to an infant drinking milk, to a child on solid food, to a searcher after wisdom, to a hunter of more invisible game.

Think how it is to have a conversation with an embryo. You might say, "The world outside is vast and intricate. There are wheatfields and mountain passes, and orchards in bloom. At night there are millions of galaxies, and in sunlight the beauty of friends dancing at a wedding."

You ask the embryo why he, or she, stays cooped up in the dark with eyes closed. Listen to the answer.

There is no "other world." I only know what I've experienced. You must be hallucinating.

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Toegepast?

• tijdens de bijeenkomsten heb ik al eea gezien...

• jullie?

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Grue en Bleen

LOW

EM

PHAS

IS O

N PR

EDIC

TION

HI

GH

Planning

EMPHASIS ON CONTROL HIGH

Adaptation

LOW

Market Power

Effectuation

PREDICTION Planned Action

RISK Inaction:

Learned Helplessness

UNCERTAINTY Creative Action

CONTROL IN VENTURE ENVIRONMENTS

MONOPOLY Overlooked Action

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De andere principes

• “crazy quilt”

• “lemonade”

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Crazy Quilt

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Absolut-Ice hotel

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Lemonade

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Surprise

• Avoid Surprises.

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Surprise

• Leverage Surprises.Surprises can present new opportunities.

• Avoid Surprises.

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CONTINGENCIES�

CHANGE YOUR MEANS

WHICH GIVES YOU NEW MEANS TO LEVERAGE

WHICH MAY GENERATE NOVEL OUTCOMES�

Information � Events �

People �

What you know Who you are

Who you know

by asking yourself "Now what can I do with my revised

means?"�

i.e. new venture directions

THE CONTINGENCY PATH TO NOVEL OUTCOMES

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•  THE UNCERTAINTY PARADOX –  How can you control a future you cannot predict? –  You create it

•  THE CERTAINTY PARADOX –  How can you create a future in an environment mostly outside your control? –  You co-create it with other stakeholders

•  THE EQUITY PARADOX –  How do you bring other people on board to create a non-existent pie? –  You let them self-select for a piece of it

•  THE AUTONOMY PARADOX –  How do you share the pie without losing control of it? –  You understand that ownership is not control; ownership is about the meta-rules

•  THE PERSISTENCE PARADOX –  What do you do when things go wrong? –  You persist, but pre-commit when to give up

•  THE PERFORMANCE PARADOX –  You have built a great organization, a market that�s maturing and becoming predictable –  Voila, you now have little control over it! [control shifts to prediction].

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Het proces

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5

Attitude Toward OthersCompetition. Set up transactional

relationships with customers andsuppliers.

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5

Partnership. Build your “future” together with customers, suppliers and even prospective competitors.

Attitude Toward OthersCompetition. Set up transactional

relationships with customers andsuppliers.

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High%impetus%to%act%

Low%impetus%to%act%

Inac3on%Learned%Helplessness%

Working(with(inputs(outside(your(control(

Working(with(inputs(within(your(control(

Outcomes(assumed(to(be(within(your(control(

Outcomes(assumed(to(be(outside(your(control(

Compelling%impetus%to%act%

Causal(=((Need(to(chase(resources(

Effectual(=((Self>selected(stakeholders(

Causal(=((Predicted(Outcomes(

Effectual(=((Novel(Outcomes(

Causal(=((Plan(and(make(calculated(bets(

Effectual(=((Be(open(to(changing(goals(

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Affordable loss

• vs. “real options”

• vs. min-max

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Ice Hotel

• probeer de causale principes toe te passen

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Entrepreneurs

For a given level of risk, entrepreneurs feel they can expand the problem space and increase returns

For a given level of return, bankers feel they can reduce the problem space and decrease risk.

Step 2 Push creatively to increase return

Step 2 Try to reduce risk through insurance, etc.

Step 1 Pick a comfortable level of risk

Step 1 Pick a target return

Risk

Return

High High

Low Low

Low Low High High

Bankers

Risk

Return

DIFFERENTIAL APPROACH TO RISK BETWEEN ENTREPRENEURS AND BANKERS

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MEANS WHO I AM

WHAT I KNOW WHO I KNOW

DEAD END OPPORTUNITY

ON HOLD

EFFECTUATION IN ACTION

NEW FIRMS, NEW PRODUCTS OR NEW MARKETS

NEW MEANS

NEW GOALS

NO COMMITMENT

EXPANDING CYCLE OF RESOURCES MEANS

CONSTRAINTS

CHANGES IN THE

ENVIRONMENT

CONVERGING CYCLE OF CONSTRAINTS ON GOAL

GOALS WHAT CAN

I DO?

INTERACT WITH PEOPLE

I KNOW

STAKEHOLDER COMMITMENTS

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