De klimaatverandering uitdaging en opportuniteiten...De klimaatverandering uitdaging en...

De klimaatverandering uitdaging en opportuniteiten

Prof. Jean-Pascal van Ypersele Voormalig IPCC Vice-chair (2008-2015) UCL-ELI (Université catholique de Louvain, Earth & Life Institute) Web: www.climate.be E-mail: [email protected] Twitter: @JPvanYpersele Honourable Sion Club, Wijnegem, 7 juni 2016 NB: Dank aan de Federale POD Wetenschapsbeleid (BELSPO) voor zijn ondersteuning.

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Greenland Ice Mass Loss 2002-2009 !Derived From NASA GRACE Gravity Mission!

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Velicogna, Geophysical Research Letters, 2009!

•Contributes to sea level rise!

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http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/10/lying-statistics-global-warming-edition

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http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/10/lying-statistics-global-warming-edition

Jean-Pascal van Ypersele ([email protected])

Vragen !! Wat zegt het IPCC nu over de

klimaatproblematiek? In welke mate is de mens effectief een belangrijke veroorzaker van de klimaatverandering?

!! Wat kunnen we (nog) doen ? Kan het tij nog gekeerd worden ?

16


Knelpunten !! Klimaat veranderd inderdaad !! Meestal onder de invloed van menselijke

activiteiten (meestal CO2) !! Zonder mitigatie, gevolgen zullen kostbaar

zijn, ook voor België !! Grote emissie reducties zijn nodig om de

opwarming te limiteren !! Er zijn veel mogelijkheden om dat te doen, ook

in steden !! Het kost niet zoveel als de gevolgen, en er zijn

ook co-benefits en opportuniteiten 17

WhytheIPCC?

toprovidepolicy-makerswithanobjecWvesourceofinformaWonabout

•  causesofclimatechange,•  potenWalenvironmental

andsocio-economicimpacts,

•  possibleresponseopWons(adaptaWon&miWgaWon).

WMO=WorldMeteorologicalOrganizaWonUNEP=UnitedNaWonsEnvironment

Programme

Established by WMO and UNEP in 1988

What is happening in the climate system?

What are the risks?

What can be done?

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

Key messages from IPCC AR5 ! Human influence on the climate system is clear ! Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will increase the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems

! While climate change is a threat to sustainable development, there are many opportunities to integrate mitigation, adaptation, and the pursuit of other societal objectives

! Humanity has the means to limit climate change and build a more sustainable and resilient future

Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850.

In the Northern Hemisphere, 1983–2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years (medium confidence).

(IPC

C 2

013,

Fig

. SP

M.1

a)

Since 1950, extreme hot days and heavy precipitation have become more common

22

There is evidence that anthropogenic influences, including increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, have changed these extremes!

PlateauGlacier(1961)(Alaska)

h=p://www.weather.com/news/science/environment/alaskas-glaciers-capturing-earth-changing-our-eyes-20131125?cm_ven=Email&cm_cat=ENVIRONMENT_us_share

PlateauGlacier(2003)(Alaska)

h=p://www.weather.com/news/science/environment/alaskas-glaciers-capturing-earth-changing-our-eyes-20131125?cm_ven=Email&cm_cat=ENVIRONMENT_us_share

AR5 WGI SPM - Approved version / subject to final copyedit!

Change in average sea-level change!


CO2 concentration measured at Mauna Loa (3400 m)

Source: Dr. Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL (www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/)

(Lüthi et al.,2008, NOAA)

+30%

2014

The concentrations of CO2 have increased to levels

unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years.

1000 years before present

CO

2 Con

cent

ratio

ns (p

pm)

Atmospheric concentrations of CO2!

Cycle de l énergie et effet de serre

Rayonnement!solaire!

20%!

Infrarouges!

-18 C!

Cycle de l énergie et effet de serre

Rayonnement!solaire!

20%!

Convection,!etc...!

Infrarouges!

H2O!

CO2, ...!

+15 C!95%!

AR3 AR2

AR1 AR4

A Progression of Understanding: Greater and Greater Certainty in Attribution

AR1 (1990): “unequivocal detection not likely for a decade”

AR2 (1995): “balance of evidence suggests discernible human influence”

AR3 (2001): “most of the warming of the past 50 years is likely (odds 2 out of 3) due to human activities”

AR4 (2007): “most of the warming is very likely (odds 9 out of 10) due to greenhouse gases”

IPCC

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Cycle du carbone

Unités: GtC (milliards de tonnes de carbone) ou GtC/an

120

70.5

70

2300

Atmosphère pré-ind : 597

38000 Océan

3700

respiration

processus physiques chimiques

biologiques photosynthèse

119.5

Cycle du carbone

Unités: GtC (milliards de tonnes de carbone) ou GtC/an

120

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70

2300

Atmosphère pré-ind : 597

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3700

+ 3.2/an

déboisement (occup. sols)

Combustibles fossiles

6.4

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1.6 puits 2.6 respiration

2.2

processus physiques chimiques

biologiques photosynthèse

119.5

Thecarboncycleispolicy-relevant

•  CO2accumulatesintheatmosphereaslongashumanemissionsarelargerthanthenaturalabsorpWoncapacity

•  HistoricalemissionsfromdevelopedcountriesthereforemacerforalongWme

•  AswarmingisfuncWonofcumulatedemissions,thecarbon«space»isnarrowingfast(tostayunder1.5or2°Cwarming)

RCP Scenarios: Atmospheric CO2 concentration!

AR5, chapter 12. WGI!

Three stabilisation scenarios: RCP 2.6 to 6 One Business-as-usual scenario: RCP 8.5

Only the lowest (RCP2.6) scenario maintains the global surface temperature increase above the pre-industrial level to less than 2°C with at

least 66% probability

(IPC

C 2

013,

Fig

. SP

M.7

a)

18-20000 years ago (Last Glacial Maximum) With permission from Dr. S. Joussaume, in « Climat d’hier à demain », CNRS éditions.

Today, with +4-5°C globally With permission from Dr. S. Joussaume, in « Climat d’hier à demain », CNRS éditions.

+0.3

+4.8

IPCC lower estimate by 2100

IPCC upper estimate by 2100

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IPCC, WGI, Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections Supplementary Material RCP8.5

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Precipitation projections Projections de l’évolution du total des pluies annuelles

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Sea level due to continue to increase

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(Ref: 1986-2005)


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•! Tropics%to%the%poles •! On%all%continents%and%in%the%ocean •! Affecting%rich%and%poor%countries (but the

poor are more vulnerable everywhere)

AR5 WGII SPM

Risk=HazardxVulnerabilityxExposure(KatrinafloodvicWm)

APPhoto-LisaKrantz(h=p://lisakrantz.com/hurricane-katrina/zspbn1k4cn17phidupe4f9x5t1mzdr)


Potential Impacts of Climate Change

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With 1 metre sea-level rise: 63000 ha below sea-level in Belgium (likely in 22nd century, not impossible in 21st century)

(NB: flooded area depends on protection)

Source: N. Dendoncker (Dépt de Géographie, UCL), J.P. van Ypersele et P. Marbaix (Dépt de Physique, UCL) (www.climate.be/impact)

With 8 metre sea-level rise: 3700 km2 below sea-level in Belgium (very possible in year 3000) (NB: flooded area depends on protection)

Source: N. Dendoncker (Dépt de Géographie, UCL), J.P. van Ypersele et P. Marbaix (Dépt de Physique, UCL) (www.climate.be/impact)


Gazet van Antwerpen 8 September 2004

(Time 2001)

Effects of a 1 m Sea-Level Rise in the Nile Delta (>10 million people live at less than 1 m a.s.l.)

Flood risk adaptation in Bangladesh (example): cyclone shelters, awareness raising, forecasting and warning

Sources: IPCC SREX (Special Report on extreme events…) and IPCC AR5, H Brammer, Clim Risk Management 2014 p.51-62

Sources: IPCC SREX (Special Report on extreme events…) and IPCC AR5, H Brammer, Clim Risk Management 2014 p.51-62

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Cumulative emissions of CO2 largely determine global mean surface warming by the late 21st century and beyond.

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Fig. SPM.10

Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.

© IP

CC

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3


The window for action is rapidly closing 65% of the carbon budget compatible with a 2°C goal is already used NB: this is with a probability greater than 66% to stay below 2°C NB: this is with a probability greater than 66% to stay below 2°C

Amount Used 1870-2011:

1900 GtCO2

Amount Remaining:

1000 GtCO2

Total Carbon Budget:

2900 GtCO2

AR5 WGI SPM NB: Emissions in 2011: 38 GtCO2/yr

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Can temperature rise still be kept below 1.5 or 2°C (over the 21st century) compared to pre-industrial ? •!Many scenario studies confirm that it is technically and economically feasible to keep the warming below 2°C, with more than 66% probability (”likely chance”). This would imply limiting atmospheric concentrations to 450 ppm CO2-eq by 2100.

•!Such scenarios for an above 66% chance of staying below 2°C imply reducing by 40 to 70% global GHG emissions compared to 2010 by mid-century, and reach zero or negative emissions by 2100.

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Can temperature rise still be kept below 1.5 or 2°C (over the 21st century) compared to pre-industrial ? •! These scenarios are characterized by rapid improvements of energy efficiency and a near quadrupling of the share of low-carbon energy supply (renewables, nuclear, fossil and bioenergy with CCS), so that it reaches 60% by 2050.

•! Keeping global temperature increase below 1.5°C would require even lower atmospheric concentrations (<430 ppm CO2eq) to have a little more than 50% chance. There are not many scenario studies available that can deliver such results, requiring even faster reductions in the medium term, indicating how difficult this is.

Mitigation Measures

More efficient use of energy

Greater use of low-carbon and no-carbon energy - Many of these technologies exist today - But worldwide investment in research in support of GHG mitigation is small…

Improved carbon sinks - Reduced deforestation and improved forest management

and planting of new forests - Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage

Lifestyle and behavioural changes AR5 WGIII SPM

•  Mitigation requires major technological and institutional changes including the upscaling of low- and zero carbon energy (quadrupling from 2010 to 2050 for the scenario limiting warming below 2°C)

All sectors and regions have the potential to contribute by 2030

Note: estimates do not include non-technical options, such as lifestyle changes.

(avoided emissions: the higher, the better)

IPCC AR4 (2007)

•  Substantial reductions in emissions would require large changes in investment patterns e.g., from 2010 to 2029, in billions US dollars/year: (mean numbers rounded, IPCC AR5 WGIII Fig SPM 9)

•  energy efficiency: +330 •  renewables: + 90 •  power plants w/ CCS: + 40 •  nuclear: + 40 •  power plants w/o CCS: - 60 •  fossil fuel extraction: - 120

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Mitigation can result in large co-benefits for human health and other societal goals.

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Paris Agreement!

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Paris Agreement!

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Paris Agreement!

73

Intended Nationally Determined Contributions!

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Que peut-on faire ?

• Analyser l’empreinte-carbone de ses activités

• Diminuer sa consommation d’énergie fossile ✦ Chauffage (isolation, thermostat, pompes à chaleur…)

✦ Transport: transports publics, vélo (électrique ?), marche, co-voiturage, le moins d’avion possible

Que peut-on faire ?

• Diminuer sa consommation de biens dont la production, le transport ou l’usage exigent beaucoup d’énergie fossile ou émettent des gaz à effet de serre: ✦  Ex: viande, alimentation hors-saison ou

non-locale, produits électroniques peu durables, …

•  Interpeller les personnes qui ont une parcelle de pouvoir et les institutions pour qu’elles créent le contexte adéquat pour que la transition puisse se faire

J’essayed’êtrecohérent…


The Choices Humanity Makes Will Create Different Outcomes (and affect prospects for effective adaptation)

With substantial mitigation

Without additional mitigation

Change in average surface temperature (1986–2005 to 2081–2100) AR5 WGI SPM

Source: UNICEF

Onlytogether…

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Useful links: !! www.ipcc.ch : IPCC (reports and videos) !! www.climate.be/vanyp : my slides and

other documents !! www.skepticalscience.com: excellent

responses to contrarians arguments !! On Twitter: @JPvanYpersele and @IPCC_CH

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