Blog Nico 16 Oktober 2014

8/10/2019 Blog Nico 16 Oktober 2014

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The views in this report are those of the analyst named on the final page and are not intended to be impartial or objective. None of the material should beconsidered an invitation or recommendation to deal in any particular investment. Statements of fact are believed true but are not warranted to be so. The

report should be considered a marketing communication and has not been prepared in accordance with requirements designed to promote the independenceof investment research. Further, it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the distribution of investment research (although VCL's procedure

prohibits doing so). The material was prepared by PT Valbury Asia Futures and distributed by Valbury Capital Limited (which is authorized and regulated bythe Financial Services Authority). Members of the Valbury Group may provide services to any companies mentioned in the report.

16 Oktober 2014

Apakah Harga Minyak Akan Terus Merosot?

If we had a way to preserve the stability of prices or somethingthat would bring it back to previous levels, we would not hesitatein that. There is no room for countries to reduce their production.Crude probably wont fall below $76 to $77 a barrel because thatprice level represents the highest cost of production in the U.S.and Russia. Both countries have abundant supply and are outsidethe group...-- Al-Omair of Kuwait

Photo: AP


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Minyak masih menjadi bagian yang terpenting dan yang paling politis di antara komoditas dunia,sehingga dalam laporan kali ini saya akan mengetengahkan pandangan lebih dalam mengenaiminyak.

Sejak menembus ke bawah $90/barel pada 3 Oktober 2014 lalu, harga minyak mentah di pasar WestTexas Intermediate (WTI) terus merosot hingga $80.29 saat laporan ini dibuat.


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Dan harga minyak mentah WTI pun masuk dalam zona bearish karena sudah merosot lebih dari20% terhitung dari puncaknya di bulan Juni:

Chart: Bloomberg

Lalu apakah harga minyak akan tetap merosot, atau justru sebaliknya akan rebound?

Memang, saat harga minyak terus merosot, para analis maupun produsen minyak terus mencarialasan dan mencoba mengidentifikasi level-level dasar harga.

Meskipun harga minyak benchmark, seperti Brent dan WTI, terus turun, biaya untuk eksplorasiminyak tetap naik terus.

Menurut Chris Pedersen, seorang Managing Directoruntuk Oak Leaf EnergyTraining Inc., sejumlahpendorong utama yang menyebabkan paradoks tersebut adalah:

1. The U.S. Oil BoomAmericas oil boom is well documented. Shale oil production has grown by roughly 4 million barrelsper day (mbpd) since 2008. Imports from OPEC have been cut in half and for the first time in 30years, the U.S. has stopped importing crude from Nigeria.


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2. Libya is BackBecause of internal strife, analysts have until recently assumed that Libyas output would hoveraround 150,000-250,000 thousand barrels per day. It turns out that Libya has sorted out theirdisruptions much quicker than anticipated, producing 810,000 barrels per day in September. Libyanofficials told the Wall Street Journal last week that they expect to produce a million barrels per day bythe end of the month and 1.2 million barrels a day by early next year.

3. OPEC InfightingThere have been numerous reports about the discord between OPEC members, leading many tobelieve that OPEC will not be able to reign in production like it has done so in the past. The Saudis

and Kuwaitis have reportedly been in an oil price war, repeatedly lowering their prices in order tomaintain their market share in Asia. John Kingston, the news director at Platts, believes that theSaudis will not be willing to give up market share like they have done during previous price drops.

4.Negative European Economic OutlookEuropean Central Bank president Mario Draghi has left investors concerned about the continentsslow growth. Germanys exports were down 5.8 percent in August, stoking the fears of anxiousinvestors that the EUs largest economy had double dipped into recession last quarter. Across theEuro zone, the IMF again lowered its growth forecast to 0.8 percent in 2014 and 1.3 percent in 2015.

5. Tepid As ian DemandBeyond slow economic growth and currency depreciation, a number of Asian countries have beguncutting energy subsidies, resulting in higher fuel costs despite a drop in global oil prices. In 2012,

Asias top spenders on energy subsidies, as a percentage of GDP included: Indonesia 3 percent;Thailand 2.6 percent; Vietnam 2.5 percent, Malaysia 2.3 percent, and India 2.3 percent. India is aprimary example. Between 2008-2012, Indias diesel demand grew between 6 percent and 11percent annually. In January 2013, the country started cutting the subsidies of diesel. Since then,diesel consumption has plateaued.


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Namun.. kadang, banyak tersimpan cerita di balik suatu hal, kan?

Ral Ilargi Meijer dari The Automatic Earthyakin bahwa keretakan di tubuh OPEC akan meningkat ditengah terjadinya penurunan harga minyak:

How To Blow Up OPEC In Three Easy Steps

Its easily been longer than I care to remember that I first wrote it was only a matter of time beforeindividual OPEC members would throw out the cartels agreements on prices and production, and just

produce at full force and capacity, and then some. We may have seen that time arrive.

The underlying reason I first talked about it was two-fold. First: the economic crisis, which could leadto one thing only: less global demand. And second: the fast increasing wealth and populationnumbers in oil-producing nations which, as initially defined by Jeffrey Brown and Sam Foucher in theExport Land Model, has proven to be a much bigger factor in OPEC economies than people realized.

Hardly anyone, still to this day, talks about the Export Land Model, but birth rates in Arab oilproducing nations have been sky-high for many years, and the fact that in a country like Saudi Arabiasome 50% of the population is younger than 20 years old, has enormous consequences domestically.Certainly with the King and the rest of the reigning class seriously getting on in age.

A generational clash can be avoided only by pampering the young, and that comes with a big surge in

domestic demand for oil. And since for many young people there are no jobs, Saudi Arabia has noindustries to speak of, there are many who follow the example of Saudis like Osama Bin Laden intoextremism.

Like the EU, 54-year old OPEC has lived past its best before date. Predictably, individual membersinterests have started to diverge too much for it to remain a coherent entity. And the divergencewidens fast these days.

Ive hinted before at the long-standing cooperation between the US and Saudi Arabia, and thereslittle doubt in my mind that the two are up to something. Washington has it in for Putin, first andforemost. The Ukraine project has not brought what was intended.

Russia also still stands behind its only Middle East sphere of influence, Syria, something the Saudis

like as little as America (but which Moscow wont give up and end up with zero say in the region) .And theres always Venezuela, OPEC member and very vulnerable to power oil prices. Then thereare a dozen other possible targets among oil producers that the Saudi/US partnership may want toweaken. Who likes Iran, for one thing?


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Weve known for a while that the Saudis were lowering their prices. This is something other OPECmembers will be plenty upset about. But now we find out theyre also increasing production, andtrying to catch European and Asian customers before other fellow members can.

What follows from that is that Saudi Arabia more or less unilaterally decides where oil prices aregoing. Iran and Iraq have already announced price cuts, and the rest has no choice but to follow, nomatter how badly they need higher prices. Its a kind of musical chairs, and quite a few nations will fallbe the wayside. Though not necessarily Russia.

Algeria and Kuwait, for whatever reasons, seem to be lined up with the Saud family against the rest of

OPEC.

There is no room for countries to reduce their production, says Kuwait. In other words, its everybodyfor themselves. Because supply and demand numbers seem to indicate theres lots of room to cutproduction. So that cant be it. Still, production rises in Saudi Arabia, US, Russia and undoubtedlymany other producing nations. What else can they do when prices fall, but try and sell higher volumesto the highest bidder, as demand wanes in a shrinking global economy thats done blowing bubbles?Theres nothing left but to pump all out and hope for the best.

The 3 easy steps to blow up OPEC are easy indeed. The question may be why now, and why theway it happens. But that its happening is clear.

Step 1: raise outpu t

Step 2: lower prices Step 3: watch member nations governments go down like cats in a sack, trying to keep

control of their societies. Step 3a: yank up the US dollar

This is not a purely economic issue, its political. The US has a large voice in it in the directors role,and the House of Saud plays the part of the protagonist. This is a major development in world politics,its not just some financial market-driven move.

World power relations are being hugely changed on the fly as were all watching and trying to figurewhat to make of all this. One things for sure: the world will never be the same.

Why it happens now is a great question, which is impossible to answer. And thats fine: its enough to

try and understand exactly what is going on, let alone why.

But I bet you it has to do with the US and Europe realizing they can no longer keep pretending theireconomies are growing or recovering or doing fine.


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Weve landed in the next phase of what arguably started in 2007, but what you could place backmany years before that, an economic system based on the fantasy that is debt driven growth, inflatedby a factor of a trillion, give or take a few zeros.

That system is in the process of dying. And the people who have tried to make you believe, andsucceeded, that it would all be fine in the end, are now jockeying for position in the aftermath of thedemise of a world built on debt.

And they are the same people who built that world, profited from it to an insane degree, and want touse those profits to hang on to power in a world that will be dramatically different from the one they

called the shots in. And that doesnt bode well; it tells us violent clashes will be on the horizon.

Terakhir yang tak kalah penting dari Byron King, editor sebuah media cetakbernama Outstanding Investment, yang telah banyak tulis artikel bagaimanaisu-isu etnis dan agama di Timur Tengah dan Afrika Utara menyebabkankeretakan regional, yang disebutnya sebagai Perang Minyak.

Belum lama ini, Byron pun mengetengahkan laporan terbarunya mengenaiskenario perang minyak dan menjelaskan apa artinya bagi industri shale gasAS:

Saudi Arabias Petroleum Pearl Harbor

Big News! Saudi Arabia just opened a new front in ongoing "oil wars" that are being fought across theworld. A few days ago, Saudi made a relatively quiet move; but it may as well have bombed PearlHarbor, considering the impact and implications.

Saudi actions are already cascading across oil markets. We'll likely see effects in the short-, medium-and long-terms. What will it mean for your energy investment portfolio? Let's think it through

The Saudi move was stealthy; so stealthy that you might have missed it, even if you follow the energysector. Unlike much else that happens in the Middle East, the Saudi move didn't involve anything

blowing up -- well not "blowing up" for real, with blast, heat and dead bodies flying. What happened,specifically?

In response to recently declining global oil prices, Saudi announced that it would lower the price of itsexported oil, versus cutting output in the face of relative abundance in global oil supply.


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Got that? Lower prices, versus cut supply. Remember, this is Saudi, the so-called global "swing"producer. That is, Saudi has plenty of oil wells, ready to go; already drilled and hooked up to pipes.

Saudi can raise or lower oil output literally by turning valves. Thus, instead of turning valves to theright ("lefty-loosey, righty-tighty," as an old Army engine maintenance manual explained), Saudi ismaintaining output while lowering prices.

Here's a succinct summary of what's going on, according to Bloomberg News: "State-owned SaudiArabian Oil Co. cut prices for all grades and to all regions for November shipments, reducing thosefor Asia to the lowest level since 2008."

Get that? Cut prices. All grades. All regions. The lowest level since 2008! Whoa! Didn't oil markets --and every other kind of market -- sort of umm crash back in 2008? Yes, I seem to recall seeingsomething about that

As you might imagine, a Saudi spokesman put a purely innocent spin on things. Price cuts areintended to "boost margins for refinery clients." The pricing move is definitely "not the start of a pricewar," he says.

No. Of course not. Why would anyone think that? Isn't Saudi well known for helping refiners boostmargins, at its expense? Oh, wait

Oil traders at Germany's Commerzbank AG, as well as traders at Citigroup, have a different take on

the Saudi price cuts. The downward pricing moves "could be the opening shots in a price war." Gee,do ya think?

Not to be outdone by Saudi, this week Iran announced that it, too, will sell oil to Asia in November,and at the largest discount since 2008 -- there's that date again. That is, State-run National Iranian OilCo. will match Saudi price cuts. Per Commerzbank, "The timing of Iran's price cuts makes the pricewar more and more probable."

It's notable that both Saudi and Iran are lowering prices for customers in Asia. The fact is that MiddleEast oil producers have recently begun to face strong price competition for oil sales in Asia, theirlargest market in recent years.

Lower prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent-quoted crude, however, mean that tanker

traffic has shifted. More oil cargoes are moving to Asia from Russia, Latin America and the U.S.Indeed, a million-barrel tanker recently sailed from Valdez, Alaska to South Korea; the first major U.S.crude oil export to anywhere in over ten years. (Saudi's price cut announcement came a few dayslater. Coincidence?)


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What's driving the shift in oil trades and the trend to lower prices? U.S-Canadian fracking, as long-time Daily Reckoningreaders doubtless know. It's changing the world. Energy-wise, we're living not ina "once per generation" time; it's a "once per three or four generation" transformation.

As oil scholars know, global crude oil output has been relatively flat for several years, across prettymuch the entire world, except for the U.S. -- another story entirely. Think of the Middle East, wherepolitical strife and war has stymied large output increases.

Plus, in the rest of the world, things simply have not unfolded in the oil patch as fast or easily (orwithin budget!) as people hoped; think of offshore Brazil, or production issues in Angola, East Africa,

Australia or any of many other locales.

Or another example; right now, per Bloomberg News, Nigeria has not yet contracted to sell half of theoil it plans to load into tankers in November. Why? Well not enough buyers! So should we expectdramatic price discounts from Nigeria? Don't be surprised.

In the U.S., however, thanks to fracking, oil output has zoomed upwards. Here's one chart to illustratethe points I just made above.

While rest of world stays flat, U.S. output zooms.


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As the chart shows, U.S. fracking has added well over three million barrels per day to global oilsupplies within the past six years or so. North America's oil patch is Ground Zero for a globalupheaval in energy pricing and trade patterns -- long story. However, for all the fracking success,Saudi will not concede market share caused by tight pricing from new U.S. oil output; that is, Saudi iscutting prices.

Along those lines, my immediate sense of Saudi price-cutting is that it's an in-your-face effort tomaintain Saudi market share. Saudi is deeply concerned about losing markets for its oil over the longhaul. (It would make sort of the same problem as Nigeria has -- see above.) Recent price cuts aresort of a "buy in" with refinery customers to keep them happy; and this may work for the time being.

So Saudi will sell the "same" amount of oil, but for less money.

My next immediate sense of Saudi price-cutting is that it's a grave mistake for the overall world oilindustry. Now everyone will sell the "same" amount of oil, but for less money. Everyone in the energyindustry can get squeezed, so that Saudi can attempt to maintain its market share -- versus turn itsvalves righty-tighty, and lower output. That's what price wars do.

What is the Target?

Who or what is the Saudi target in this price war? Well, per the Wall Street Journal, "A Saudi officiallate last month said that if oil prices went below $90 a barrel, oil companies would decrease outputand prices would rebound toward $100."

Oh really? And which "oil companies" might that be? Again, per a headline in the Wall Street Journal,"Price Drop Tests Oil Drillers."

That is, apparently Saudi believes that U.S. majors, independents, drilling companies and servicecompanies will feel the economic heat, and -- presumably -- throttle back on drilling and fracking.

Of course, none of this will play out fast or easily. First, I don't subscribe to the Saudi estimate of a$90 floor for profitable oil from fracking. In the U.S., there are nearly 1.5 million drillable "tight oil"sites, according to a recent estimate I saw at a private conference in Houston. (More on that inanother article.)

In other words, the U.S. has plenty of players with sites to drill and a business model to drill 'em; anda good many can afford to conduct business all the way down to $50 per barrel and lower. That

"fracking floor," so to speak, could be much lower than Saudi estimates. This price war could get ugly.


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Then we have the drilling rig fleet, onshore and offshore. A drilling slowdown would probably hurtshares in oil drilling and gas well companies. I mean, it could hurt them more than we've sufferedduring the summer-early fall swoon. This is not to say that the companies have structural problems;it's just that they'll have a rough spell in the market. If you're holding for the long term, prepare for awild ride.

Same thing with the service guys, Halliburton (HAL), Baker Hughes (BHI: NYSE) and Schlumberger(SLB: NYSE). They've sold down in recent months, but that was a reflection of oil prices dropping $20or so, from (Brent) $110 to below $90. What if there's another $20 or $30 to go, on the down-side?Look out. Again, it's not to say that the companies have structural problems. We'll experience a rough

spell, though. Get set for the same wild ride.

Here in the U.S., any significant diminution in energy industry drilling and operations will impacteconomies all across the nation.

Imagine less drilling, completion and energy-related construction activity from Alaska to Pennsylvaniato the Gulf of Mexico, and many places in between. That's a lot of money that won't get spent.

If things pull back far enough, we might live through a new version of the classical old "oil bust," inwhich contracts get cancelled, people get laid off, leases expire and tax collectors go away empty-handed. In short, say farewell to one of the critical pillars of that (over-rated) U.S. "economicrecovery" that political hacks like to brag about.

Then again, another oil bust will give investors a chance to buy into great companies, fixed for thelong haul, but selling at bargain prices.

This Saudi oil price cut is just beginning to show effects. It'll get worse before it gets better.


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What Do the Charts Say?

Tyler Durden dari www.zerohedge.com Selasa (14 Oktober 2014) lalu menulis bahwa that hargaminyak crudeanjlok.

Silahkan baca agar Anda bisa memperoleh peluang jangka pendek yang menguntungkan darianjloknya harga minyak dunia saat ini:

Brent Is Most. Oversold. EVER

Yesterday we lamented the ridiculously oversold levels in West Texas Intermediate, which as BofAcalculated, has hit "oversold" levels for only the third time in six years. We assumed that this could bethe basis for a short-term rebound. We were wrong, because we clearly had no idea just howdetermined the Saudis are to crush Putin into the ground courtesy of plunging oil prices.

As of moments ago, WTI has tumbled nearly $4, some 5%, to just over $81...


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... this just goes to show how idiotic any reliance on charts is in a centrally-planned world, in whichcommodities are nothing but political weapons. Bottom line: based on its weekly RSI chart, WTI hasjust hit the most oversold levels since Lehman.

But to our rather great dismay, what is going on with Brent turned out to be far worse, and as theweekly RSI indicator shows the selloff in Brent is now the worst, well, ever!


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Personal update

Seperti nampak pada grafik di bawah ini, harga minyak West Texas Intermediate (WTI) telahmengalami tekanan besar belakangan ini.

Indikator Relative Strength Index (RSI) mengindikasikan harga minyak tersebut kini sudah masukdalam zona oversoldyang ekstrim, dan menghadapi support antara $76 dan $80.

Namun, perlu diingat bahwa kondisi yang oversold BUKAN berarti saatnya untuk membeli.

Bahkan, kondisi oversold yang ekstrim dapat menjadi sebuah pertanda awal bagi tekanan besar.

Mungkin memang akan ada kenaikan signifikan pada harga minyak, namun rebound tersebut dapatbersifat sementara saja.

Dan akhirnya jika sejarah menjadi pegangan - maka kita mungkin akan menyaksikan tekanan besarlagi sebelum harga beranjak naik.


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Kesimpulannya, menurut saya harga minyak crude di pasar West Texas Intermediate akanberfluktuasi antara kisaran $75 hingga $90/barel dalam beberapa bulan ke depan untuk membentukdasar yang kuat yang darinya akan mendorong kenaikan lagi menuju all-time high-nya di $147.27,yang pernah dicapai July 2008 lalu.

Pada laporan mendatang, saya akan jelaskan lebih rinci mengapa saya yakin harga minyak WTIakan mengalami rebound tajam pada tahun depan, berdasarkan struktur gelombang Elliott Wave.

Sementara ini, saya asumsikan akan ada banyak peluang untuk membeli saham-saham favorit disektor tambang minyak, gas hingga batubara di harga murah hingga setidaknya sampai awal tahun

2015.

Sebagai informasi terakhir dari saya adalah mengenai pertemuan OPEC yang akan dilakukan diVienna, Austria, pada 27 November 2014, yang hampir pasti akan menjadi forum debat terkaitdengan produksi.

Perlu diketahui, bahwa sejumlah anggota OPEC berkeberatan dengan terus merosotnya hargaminyak dan mendesak untuk melakukan pemangkasan produksi

Terima kasih sudah membaca dan semoga beruntung!

Regards,Nico Omer JonckheereVP Research and AnalysisPT. Valbury Asia Futures

Blog Nico 16 Oktober 2014

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