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  • A WORLD BANK COUNTRY STUDY PU B-5297

    ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA Economic Report

    077-01 0036

    Chokel BotolGi r H FU--001

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  • A WORLD BANK COUNTRY STUDY

    ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA Economic Report

    The World Bank Washington, D.C., U.S.A.

  • Copyright (D) 1985 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A.

    All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America First printing October 1985

    World Bank Country Studies are reports originally prepared for intemal use as part of the continuing analysis by the Bank of the economic and related conditions of its developing member countries and of its dialogues with the governments. Some of the reports are published informally with the least possible delay for the use of govem- ments and the academic, business and financial, and development communities. Thus, the typescript has not been prepared in accordance with the procedures appropriate to formal printed texts, and the World Bank accepts no responsibility for errors. The publication is supplied at a token charge to defray part of the cost of manufacture and distribution.

    The designations employed, the presentation of material, and any maps used in this document are solely for the convenience of the reader and do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the World Bank or is affiliates conceming the legal status of any country, territory, city, area, or of its authorities, or conceming the delimitation of its boundaries or national affiliation.

    The most recent World Bank publications are described in the annual spring and fall lists; the continuing research program is described in the annual Abstracts of Current Studies. The latest edition of each is available free of charge from the Publications Sales Unit, Department T, The World Bank, 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A., or from the European Office of the Bank, 66 avenue d'1ena, 75116 Paris, France.

    Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

    Main entry under title:

    Antigua and Barbuda.

    (World Bank country study) 1. Antigua and Barbuda--Economic conditions.

    2. Antigua and Barbuda--Economic policy. I. Inter- national Bank for Reconstruction and Development. II. Series. HC155.5.Z7A5734 1985 330.97297'4 85-20356 ISBN 0-8213-0628-6

  • Preface and Abstract

    This report is based upon the work of an IBRD mission to Antigua and Barbuda in July 1984. The mission consisted of Ms. T. Jones (Chief of Mission) and Mr. R. J. Robinson. Ms. B. Buyck (IARM) provided assistance to the mission on the public sector investment program. The Statistical Annex is largely based upon the work of the International Monetary Fund. The report was discussed with the Government in December 1984.

    Over the past three years, the economy of Antigua and Barbuda has experienced a slackening of economic growth. This slowdown is a result of international economic recession and the trade difficulties within the Caricom regional market. Future growth prospects appear sound however, particularly for the tourism sector which achieved record visitor arrivals in the 1983-84 high season. Much of the future growth of the economy will depend, however, upon a reorientation of the manufacturing sector toward extra-regional export markets and restraint in public sector current expenditures. The public sector has been experiencing increasing fiscal difficulties as growth in current expenditures has outpaced growth in current revenues. This has caused a buildup of arrears, especially for external obligations which could prejudice future access to external credit. Furthermore, public sector capital expenditures have declined, which has affected rehabilitation and enhancement of the country's economic and social infrastructure. A variety of issues will need to be addressed, to ensure that the foundations for future economic growth are in place. These issues are listed below.

    - Immediate progress is necessary to curtail the growth of public sector current expenditures, particularly in order to ensure that adequate funds are available to meet debt service obligations.

    - Alternative revenue raising measures are necessary together with an effective tax policy and general improvement in the tax administration.

    - Employment generation constitutes the main development challenge.

    - The tourism sector will remain the country's leading sector for many years. Government needs to expand the promotion resources available to the Tourist Board; to continue with plans for a hotel training school and to establish an airport maintenance fund.

    - Efforts should be made to expand the representation of the Industrial Development Board and allocate the resources necessary to enable the Board to play a major role in the attraction of new manufacturing investment.

    - Within the agricultural sector, efforts must be made to encourage fruit, vegetable and livestock production. An early review of the viability of the sugar industry should be made, together with a review of the Central Marketing Corporation's pricing policies.

  • CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

    Currency Unit East Caribbean Dollar

    Since its creation in 1965, the East Caribbean dollar was tied to sterling at the rate of 1.00 = EC$4.8. In July 1976 the link with sterling was broken and the East Caribbean dollar was aligned with the US dollar at the rate of US$1.00 = EC$2.70.

    Since July 1976

    EC$1.00 = US$0.370 or

    US$1.00 EC$2.700

  • Page I of 2 pages

    COUNTRY DATA - ANTIGUA AND SMEIA

    AREA PortLATION DENSITY

    42 kM 2

    76,241 told-103 3

    est.) 175 per lm2

    Rato of Growth# 1.3 (frm 1973 to 1SC3) 2C6 per km 2

    of eroble land

    POPULATIOI CHARACTERISTICS (11962) HEALTH I1S76)

    Crede Birth Rate (per 1,000) 14.S Pepultleei per physiclan 2,746

    Crude Death Rate (per 1,000) S.5 Popeletie per hespital bhd 137

    Infant Mortality (per 1,000 11" births) 31.S

    INCOME DISTRIBUTION DISTRIBUTION OF LAND OWERSNIP

    S of ntloal Ince_, highest quintilo . ownd by top 103 of owners

    lowst quintile .. S owned by smllest 105 of oweers

    ACCESS TO SAWE WATER (1170) ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY

    I ot populatlon - urban 33.2 * of popiatlon - urban)

    - rxral 14.0 - rurail

    NUTRITION (1177) EDUCATION

    Calorie stake as 2 of requlroaeto 66.1 Adult literacy rate S 90.0 (170)

    Por capita protein Intake (grom/day) 56.3 Primry school enroll_mnt T S0.0 (1977)

    GKP PER CAPITA In 1I63 a2s US41,730

    GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1183 ANNUAL RATE OF CROVTI4 (I. constant pricaa)

    US Kin. 5 175-62 1963

    GNP at Karket Prices 130.0 100.0 5.2 1.1

    greos Dometic ln|eot_t 37.7 29.0 -.3 -42.1

    Orses Natlooel Savleg 16.1 13.2 -.3 15.1

    Curroat Account balance -19.6 -15.1

    Exports of Goods, NFS 54.9 65.3 6.7 7.4

    Imports of goods. NFS 104.5 60.4 11.0 -26.5

    OUTPUT AND EMPLOYMENT IN 1962

    Voleo Added Labor Force (1961)

    USP min. 3 Thev"nd 3

    AgrIculture 7.2 6.7 2.1 9.0

    leduotry 20.0 16.3 4.7 20.2

    Servics 60.6 74.6 16.4 70.6

    Total 106.1 100.0 23.2 100.0

    GOVERNMENT FINANE

    Consolidated Public S3*tor Central overammnt

    (EC4 KIni.) of Gap (EC$ N1I.) S of gop

    1962 1163 1962 1963 1962 1963 1162 1963

    Corront Rocelpta 103.6 96.5 30.0 27.3 92.9 87.6 2#.1 24.8

    Current Expendlture 101.7 110.0 31.7 31.1 112.1 110.1 32.4 31.1

    Currost Surplue (Daficit) (6.11(13.5) -1.8 -3.6 (19.2) (22.3) -5.6 -6.3

    Capital Expenditeres 44.7 20.2 12.9 5.7 40.6 14.0 11.7 4.0

    Extereel orreowleg (net) 21.4 7.0 6.2 2.0 16.4 -4.1 4.7 -1.2

    8/ EstImtod selrg the Werld lack Atia methodology and adjusted excasboI rates (cecordleg to the US and Antigen

    reletl " rates of lnflatieu). Thls filgrs Is sebJ*st to pessible further adJetmmt4 based on x ferthcoming

    review of the oMre of greos downstic preduot Imputed to foreigners.

    .not evallhble

    net opIfbIe

  • Page 2 of 2 pages

    COUNTRY OATA - AIITIGUA AND 6ARWDA

    1963

    CREDIT AND PRICES 1979 1960 1981 1982 Est.

    Seak Credit to Publit Setotr (ECS mIlioen) 34.3 34.1 34.4 4S.S 49.5

    Bank Credit to Privte Sector (ECt millon) 66.0 102.7 133.7 146.I 179.5

    General Price Index (1969 * 100) 339.0 400.4 42S5 436.6 452.3

    Annual percentage changes Ins

    Oeeral Price Index 16.2 19.2 11.5 4.6 2.7

    Beak credit to Public Sector -3.9 -0.6 0.6 32.3 6.6

    Bonk credit to Private Sector 3.6 19.4 30.2 11.3 20.8

    BALMCE OF PAYMENTS IMERCIAOISE EXPORTS (1163) A

    1973 1960 I1NI 1982 1983 US$ Kim. X

    (US$ mililon)

    Exports of Goode, NFS 50.7 72.9 65.0 62.9 64.9 Manufeatured Goods 10.4 72.2