409 SS Econ Updates

8/14/2019 409 SS Econ Updates

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DDI 2008 F22/Econ UpdatesPage Strange/Serrano

Index

Index........................................................................................................................................................................1Fiscal Discipline Uniqueness...................................................................................................................................2

Fiscal Discipline Uniqueness...................................................................................................................................3Fiscal Discipline Uniqueness...................................................................................................................................5Fiscal Discipline Uniqueness...................................................................................................................................6Key to Heg/Budget undecided.................................................................................................................................7Chopping Block.......................................................................................................................................................8Chopping Block.......................................................................................................................................................9AffNext President/A2: Japan scenario...............................................................................................................10AffNext President...............................................................................................................................................11AffNext President..............................................................................................................................................12AffF35s key to Heg............................................................................................................................................13

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2/13


Fiscal Discipline Uniqueness

The record federal deficit has hit the brinknow is the critical time to reign in spending

JeffJacoby 8-6(http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2008/08/06/what_them_worry/)Last week, the Bush administration increased its estimated budget deficit for the coming fiscal year to $482billion, an all-time high. The deficit could climb even higher, it conceded, since the new projection doesn'tinclude the full cost of military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan or the potential drop in tax collections if theeconomy continues to worsen. Meanwhile, the current fiscal year is projected to close with a $389 billion deficit- less than the $410 billion originally forecast, but substantially higher than last year's final deficit of just under$163 billion. Unsurprisingly, the political class reacted to the news politically, mostly by upbraiding the Bushadministration. The chairman of the House Budget Committee, South Carolina Democrat John Spratt, declaredthat because of George W. Bush, "the largest surpluses in history have been converted into the largest deficits."Spratt's Senate counterpart, Democrat Kent Conrad of North Dakota, predicted that "Bush will be remembered

as the most fiscally irresponsible president in our nation's history." Neither mentioned that presidents can onlyspend money that Congress has appropriated, or noted that their party has had control of Congress for the past19 months. The two members of Congress running for president likewise jumped on the bash-Bush bandwagon.The new deficit numbers, said John McCain, are a "striking reminder of the need to reverse the profligatespending that has characterized this administration's fiscal policy." Barack Obama slammed the "reckless"policies that have "busted our budget, wreaked havoc in our economy, and mortgaged our children's future on amountain of debt." Too bad neither candidate used the occasion to speak seriously about the looming fiscalcrisis. What they - and we - should be urgently focused on is not the budget deficit in any given year, but thecrushing national debt that all those deficits cumulatively add up to: currently $9.6 trillion, and climbingrapidly. Just paying the interest on that debt will cost the government nearly $250 billion this year, making debtservice the fourth-largest item in the federal budget. But the surging cost of interest is nothing compared with

the tidal wave of entitlement spending about to crash over us. This is the year that the first of nearly 80 millionbaby boomers become eligible for Social Security payments; within three years, they will begin drawingMedicare benefits as well. Those two programs alone already account for one-third of the federal budget - 42percent if you add Medicaid, which is also focused largely on the elderly. But in the years ahead, their costs willexplode. If nothing changes, the Concord Coalition warns, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and interest onthe national debt will consume every penny of federal revenues in less than 20 years. Clearly, things willchange. They have to. Either taxes will be hiked to unprecedented levels, or spending - especially onentitlement programs - must be forcefully reined in. There is no other alternative short of continuing to runup the national debt, thereby loading our children with an unconscionable financial burden.

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3/13



Fiscal discipline is necessary to prevent an economic train wreck

Journal Star 08-03 (http://www.pjstar.com/opinions/x280666525/Our-view-Fiscal-discipline-needed-in-D-C)Our view: Fiscal discipline needed in D.C. It's one for the record books: Next year Uncle Sam's deficit willsurpass half a trillion dollars, once the cost of the war in Iraq some of our leaders so love to camouflage isfigured into the equation, according to the Congressional Budget Office. All of that red ink sounds bad, thoughany editorial on this subject is certain to arouse those who argue that it's unnecessarily alarmist to jump tonegative conclusions, particularly when deficit and debt figures are viewed outside of their proper context. Thatcontext is this: Whether debt is a burden depends on one's ability to repay it. The best way to find out on anational scale is to measure America's debt against its income and assets, our gross domestic product (GDP).Even as the nation's total debt hovers around $9.5 trillion, some $5.7 trillion of it held by the public, ascompared to GDP the nation is far less strapped today than it was 60 years ago. Indeed, in 1946, the public debthit 109 percent of GDP as the U.S. was coming off its financing of World War II. In other words, America's debt

was bigger than its economy. Over the next 30 years the U.S. steadily whittled its public debt ratio, hitting itspost-WWII low in 1974, at 23.9 percent. That soared during the Reagan-Bush I administrations - between 1980and 1990, America's red ink more than tripled - then settled back down under Bill Clinton. The current publicdebt ratio under George W. Bush - even with the huge deficits of the last seven years and the war - is about 37percent, still below the post-WWII average. So it's no big deal then, right? Well, not quite. Economists do notspeak with one voice, of course, but some are getting nervous. First, interest on the national debt is among thelargest (and fastest growing) federal government expenditures - it's consistently behind only Social Security,defense and Medicare - outpacing spending on the likes of education, veterans' benefits, foreign affairs andagriculture combined. Interest on the national debt is currently about $430 billion. That ain't chump change, andit's money going to yesterday's obligations that is no longer available for today's. Second, if nothing changes,mandatory spending on entitlement programs is expected to exceed all federal tax revenue sometime in the next

30 years. With Baby Boomers retiring, Medicare and Social Security are expanding at an inflationary rate wellbeyond GDP. That's why some economists have called the current course D.C. is on a "train wreck" waiting tohappen. Even the conservative Heritage Foundation, which fears not red ink, acknowledged in a 2005 paperfrom its lead budget analyst Brian Riedl that "the largest danger posed by rising debt is that it represents a claimon future taxes," which translates to stifled economic growth, less incentive to work, save and invest. UnlessSocial Security and Medicare are reformed, "lawmakers risk allowing debt levels to increase until they causethe highest intergenerational tax increase in history." No matter one's ideological stripe, it is unfair to saddle ourkids and grandkids with this liability. Third, one of the standard defenses for Washington's inability to livewithin its means is that we "owe the debt to ourselves." But that is far less true today than it was 20 years ago,with some 44 percent of U.S. publicly held debt now owned by foreign governments and investors; Japan andChina lead the pack. While that's not reason to panic, it does create some political complications and economic

vulnerability. Finally, there is that intangible of how this overspending undermines confidence in the federalgovernment, whose leaders model all the wrong behaviors while simultaneously lecturing citizens about self-responsibility and fiscal discipline. Where's theirs? In fact the only thing that has saved Uncle Sam's bacon isthat, even while spending like mad, America's economy has grown like gangbusters over the last half century.Now the economy has slowed, and so this annual accumulation of debt matters more. Ultimately, while we arenot quite members of the debt-is-good club, neither do we believe debt is necessarily bad, when controlled. Thehalf-trillion deficit projected for next year, with the Baby Boomer drain just beginning, stretches our discomfort

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zone considerably. Fundamentally, the debt is symptomatic of this nation's lack of discipline, which cancome back to haunt us on so many levels.

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5/13



The federal deficit is spiraling- fiscal discipline is neededSTL times 8-4

(http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/news/stories.nsf/news/editorialcommentary/story/4bd188d1675d625086257498007c39f7?OpenDocument)The White House Budget Office said it expects next year's federal deficit to hit a record $482 billion, and thatdoesn't count the full cost of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Add those costs and the deficit grows to wellover half a trillion dollars. It will grow larger still if Treasury has to bail out mortgage giants Fannie Mae andFreddie Mac. A half-trillion dollar deficit casts considerable gloom over the hopeful talk of the presumptivepresidential candidates. It makes Republican John McCain's tax-cutting plan look like fiscal lunacy. It makesDemocrat Barack Obama's plans for near-universal health care coverage look like wishful thinking. Mr. McCainwants to remove the expiration dates on the tax cuts that were enacted in the early years of the Bushadministration and also cut other taxes on individuals and businesses. That would shrink Uncle Sam's revenuesby $600 billion over 10 years, according to an analysis by the Tax Policy Center, a Washington think tank. If

Mr. McCain also continues the war in Iraq, the deficit will turn monstrous. Mr. Obama has advocated raisingtaxes on well-off people, mainly those making more than $250,000 per year, while trimming taxes for peoplewith modest incomes. His plan would add $800 billion to tax collections over 10 years, but his plans for near-universal health coverage easily could eat that up. And aside from any new tax cuts or new programs, the nationalso faces the reality that the first of the baby boom generation begins retiring this year. No matter who iselected president, he will face growing costs for Medicare and Social Security. And history indicates that thestumbling economy will leave more people qualifying for Medicaid health coverage as well. The mostfrustrating thing about the deficit is that it's back: We thought we'd solved this problem in the 1990s. A rareperiod of fiscal discipline in Washington, combined with a modest tax increase and a booming economy, liftedthe budget into surplus for four years. The United States actually began paying down the national debt.

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The supplemental military fund will sustain the F22 even if the budget doesntBloomberg 7-14 (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aC32JAiU5Xz8&refer=us)

Lockheed will have to start making decisions about supplies and material for the F-22 later this year, Stevenssaid. `Probably the most crucial material is titanium,'' company spokesman Rob Fuller said. Parts of the planethat will be affected later this year include bulkheads, horizontal stabilizers, radar and equipment forcommunication and navigation, Fuller said. Lockheed expects the main U.S. government defense-spendingbudget proposal of $515 billion for 2009 to hold up, Stevens said. There may be more flexibility in the so-calledsupplemental spending plan that is associated with the U.S. military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, he said.The average supplemental request over several years is about $170 billion to $180 billion, he said. ``We thinkthe supplemental budget will show some flexibility,'' Stevens said.

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Key to Heg/Budget undecided

The F22 is a symbol of American power projection, but the planes budget situation is in limbo

Wall Street Journal 7-14 (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121599581309149673.html?mod=googlenews_wsj)It is a Catch-22 of military contracting: The fighter is so advanced that, under law, not even U.S. allies areallowed to buy it. At the same time, the Defense Department does not want to order any more because seniorleaders believe it is not the right weapon for current missions, which command a growing slice of the Pentagonbudget. That is a blow for Lockheed, which stands to miss out on revenue from its premier fighter. The plane,with a $143 million price tag, is rolling off the assembly line problem-free, and last year the Air Force declaredit combat-ready. Australia and Japan have expressed interest in buying it, and many in the industry consider itthe best fighter ever made. But currently, Lockheed has orders for only 183 of them. "The F-22 is clearly anicon of American power projection," says Tom Ehrhard, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and BudgetaryAssessments and a former Air Force officer. One of the plane's biggest vulnerabilities has been not in the air, butin Washington. The F-22 fighter program has been in development since before the end of the Cold War. The

Air Force wanted to buy 381 of the aircraft, arguing that any less would leave gaps in their capabilities. But thecurrent defense secretary, Robert Gates, has said the plane is not relevant to the conflicts in Afghanistan andIraq. He neither funded more fighters nor funded a line shutdown. The curtailing of the F-22 has come tosymbolize the tension in the Defense Department between future threats and today's fights. Mr. Gates wants thePentagon to focus on weaponry that serves ground forces, like those in Afghanistan and Iraq, and he does notbelieve the F-22, which is geared more toward fighting a conventional foe, is needed.

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8/13


Chopping Block

The F22 program is on the chopping blockMiriam Pemberton and Lawrence Korb July 5, 2007 (To improve security, follow the money Boston Globe

op-ed lexis)That is why we convene a group of security specialists every year to produce a mock-up of what we argue ourgovernment should be providing: "A Unified Security Budget for the United States." We bring all the categoriesof security spending in the president's budget request together in one budget. This exercise shows that in fiscal2008, 90 percent of all our foreign policy and security resources are allocated to the military; 6 percent aredevoted to homeland security; 4 percent go to the tools of conflict prevention, including diplomacy, foreign aid,peacekeeping, and nuclear nonproliferation. A single security budget would enable consideration of securitytrade-offs like the following: the F-22 fighter jet, one of the most troubled and strategically questionableprograms in the US arsenal, is set to receive a $600 million increase in the president's budget. Forgoing thisincrease could permit any of these alternatives: tripling the amount budgeted to cancel the debt that is cripplingdevelopment in the world's poorest countries; increasing US contributions to international peacekeeping

operations by 50 percent; tripling the amount allocated in fiscal 2007 for domestic rail and transit securityprograms.

F22s are on the chopping blockWashington Post 2004 (Local Firms Respond to A Changing U.S. Military;Smaller Contractors Benefit From High-Tech Emphasis, lexis)A lot of the technology contractors' work is related to intelligence-gathering, a high priority in the fight againstterrorism. And their contracts are usually smaller, making them less dependent on a single program or agency,even as more of their revenue comes from defense and intelligence and their reliance on this spending grows.

Defense contractors like Lockheed, the world's biggest with $32 billion in sales last year, and GeneralDynamics Corp., based in Falls Church, rely on massive, complex and enormously expensive weapons projectsfor the bulk of their business. If Iraq forces the Pentagon to make major trade-offs, programs like Lockheed'sexpensive and troubled Joint Strike Fighter and the F-22 fighter jet could be at stake, experts say, while thegovernment simply tries to keep its forces in the field up and running.

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9/13


Chopping Block

F22s are on the chopping blockGAO Report 1998 (QUADRENNIAL DEFENSE REVIEW - OPPORTUNITIES TO IMPROVE THE NEXT

REVIEW)DOD cited the tactical aircraft decisions as an example where significant technical or other capabilityadvantages of next-generation systems over current systems resulted in force structure-modernization trade-offsHowever, while the task force analyses of the F-22 resulted in an option to reduce aircraft by nearly 100 (from438 to 339), possibly changing the future mix of tactical aircraft, DOD did not examine other options, such aswhether advanced technologies like stealth could reduce the Air Force's 20 fighter wing force structure. Further,the reductions in F-18E/Fs and Joint Strike Fighters were generally based on a proposal that fewer aircraftwould be sufficient to replace existing aircraft and affordable within the budget, not because the Navy expectsto reduce its force structure by cutting the number of carrier fighter wings.

F22s are on the chopping blockJen DiMascio 5-1 (Iraq heats up military rivalries, politico.com)Part of the Air Force's problem, in the eyes of the Pentagon and many critics, is that the Air Force is too devotedto stealth fighter jets - the F-22 Raptor - when it's asking for $20 billion more than its budget request to upgradeits fleet and has made cuts to surveillance and radar programs that could help in Iraq The Air Force contends itneeds the Raptor to face threats from "near peer competitors," a phrase frequently used by those in the militaryas a euphemism for China Stopping the purchase of Raptors now would leave the Air Force with nearly 190, butthat wouldn't be enough for all of its fighter jet squadrons, Dunn said, adding that if Pentagon civilians were soopposed, they should have made a clear decision about the program's future The Pentagon did pass on the

opportunity to kill or continue the Raptor in this year's budget The production line will close next year withoutcontinued orders, and the Pentagon provided in its budget neither money for Raptors nor money to close the line

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10/13


AffNext President/A2: Japan scenario

F22s wont be cut until the next administration; in the meantime Japan will adopt the F-35Aviation Week & Space Technology 6-16 (End of an Era; USAF leadership changes further imperil threatened

F-22 as Defense Dept. hails F-35 progress, lexis)Strong endorsement by the U.S. Defense Dept. is bolstering Lockheed Martin?s multinational F-35 after itachieved a critical flight milestone last week. However, the company is facing a loss of support for its F-22 afterthe program?s top two champions were ousted from the Pentagon?s inner circle. Pentagon acquisition czar JohnYoung, known for setting rigorous technical maturity milestones for weapons programs, took the unusual stepof releasing a statement only hours after the June 11 first flight of the short takeoff and vertical landing (Stovl)F-35B?the first production-representative Joint Strike Fighter. ?The JSF program is ahead of similar programsin terms of quality, software, testing and manufacturing readiness,? he said, praising ?the maturity and progressbeing made on JSF.? Initial flying is in conventional take-off and landing mode, and Stovl testing is still monthsaway, but the first flight of the F-35B clears the way for release of $1.3 billion in funding to produce the first sixaircraft for the Marine Corps. The contract should be awarded after Young has been briefed on the resolution of

blade failure issues with the Stovl version of Pratt & Whitney?s F135 engine. Despite the engine problems, theflight took place within weeks of the late May target set in August 2006, says Marine Corps Brig. Gen. DavidHeinz, deputy JSF program director. The much-anticipated milestone is likely to shore up international supportfor the JSF. Japan, worried about the impending shutdown of the F-22 line, is turning its attention to the F-35(see p. 55). With the surprise resignations of Air Force Secretary Michael Wynne and Chief of Staff Gen. T.Michael Moseley this month, the stealthy Raptor, in contrast, appears to be without a champion in thePentagon?s upper ranks; without new funding, production will begin winding down. The ousted USAF leadersclashed with Defense Secretary Robert Gates over their dogmatic support for the F-22. Lockheed Martin says itneeds long-lead funding for an additional lot of F-22s by November to avoid having to begin shutting down thesupply chain, but the nominated Air Force secretary and chief of staff are not expected to step in with supportfor the Raptor. ?The leadership change will prevent the Air Force from pursuing additional F-22s in Congress

for the remainder of the Bush presidency,? says Loren Thompson, a defense analyst and consultant with theWashington-based Lexington Institute. ?That diminishes the outlook for the program because neither of themajor [presidential] candidates likely to succeed Bush is favorably disposed to the Raptor.? The timeline forBoeing, which makes the wing and aft fuselage, is even tighter. ?Advanced procurement for Lot 10 must beadded to the FY [Fiscal Year] 2009 defense budget this fall to avoid the initiation of shutdown in October2008,? says Bob Jenkins, Boeing?s F-22 business strategy director. Although Lockheed and Boeing are fundedto produce aircraft until 2011, the long-lead suppliers will deliver their last parts as early as mid-2009 Thetermination threat comes as the program is stabilizing, says Larry Lawson, Lockheed Martin vice president andF-22 program manager. Aircraft are being delivered with zero defects, a month ahead of schedule, and themission-capable rate of the fleet is running at a ?pretty good? 70%, he says. The F-22 has faced terminationsince February, when the Defense Dept.?s Fiscal 2009 budget request omitted funding for the fighter, leaving its

fate to the next administration. Both defense authorization committees proposed plus-ups in order to procuresome long-lead items, but a final decision awaits a negotiation between the House and Senate.

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AffNext President

F22 funding will be decided by the next administrationDefense Daily 5-2 (Money To Continue F-22 Production Line May Be Left Out of Budget Measures, lexis)

Some House and Senate lawmakers are moving away from adding to defense legislation funding for Air ForceF-22 Raptor jets beyond the 183 planned, potentially leaving the fifth-generation fighter's future in the hands ofthe next administration. Lockheed Martin [LMT] leads the industry team that builds the F-22 Raptor. TheSenate Armed Services Committee (SASC) opted to do just that--leave the decision about whether to continueor close down the F-22 production line to the next president, Chairman Carl Levin (D-Mich.) said yesterdayafter his committee marked up the fiscal year 2009 defense authorization bill. The legislation that could hit theSenate floor in two weeks fully funds the White House request for buying 20 F-22s in FY '09, but does notaddress the contentious issue of whether to continue the production line to build more than 183 Raptors--thenumber in the Air Force's current program of record. The committee's marked-up bill includes $497 million foreither F-22 advance procurement to continue the production line in FY '10, or for shutting down the aircraftproduction line, according to a summary. "Relevant to the [F-22's] future, we left it up to the next president,"

Levin told reporters yesterday. We are "very explicitly saying that the funding that we put in--the addedadvance-procurement or shutting-down costs, that either-or decision--will be made by the next president." justtold me there's a couple things that can't get through."

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12/13


AffNext President

The next president will make a decision whether to cut F22s in Jan. 09BBC 7-14 (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7506601.stm)

But, as Mr Lawson points out, when it comes to warfare, merely surviving is not enough. "An ability to turn fastand accelerate away means you survive more," he says, yet it is the ability to "chase down an adversary" thatwins the battle. F-22 Partners to the F-35 project may not want the F-22 to be sold outside the US Similarsentiments are apparent in the ongoing US election race, where the eventual winner will be asked to find themoney to fund the cash to fund a further 198 aircraft in addition to the 183 F-22s already approved - 122 ofwhich have already been delivered. And with each plane costing more than $140m apiece, plus developmentcosts, it is a tall order, not least since there is no cash in the existing 2009 Congressional budget. A decision maynot come until January 2009, which means there will be a troublesome delay that will at best make the projectmore expensive. A worse outcome, at least from Lockheed Martin's point of view, could be the scrapping of theF-22 project - the most likely outcome if the next president chooses not to order any more F-22s.

The next president will determine the fate of the F-22Bloomberg 7-14 (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aC32JAiU5Xz8&refer=us)Lockheed Martin Corp., the world's biggest defense company, expects a decision on whether the U.S. will buyany more F-22 fighters or wind down the program to be delayed until after the coming presidential election.``We're probably several months away, toward end of defense year, from notifying some long-lead providers ofmaterial as to whether there will be follow-on activities for the F-22,'' Chief Executive Officer Robert Stevenssaid at a press reception in London. ``Currently there are not.'' Stevens on March 4 called for discussions withthe U.S. Congress and Department of Defense to determine whether more F- 22s are needed beyond the 183 duefor delivery through 2011. The fighter, also called the Raptor, is the most expensive ever, with an inflation-

adjusted cost of $195 million apiece according to Pentagon figures, rising to $354 million with developmentcosts. Bethesda, Maryland-based Lockheed supports U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates' position that adecision should be taken by next administration, the CEO said at last night's reception prior to the FarnboroughInternational Air Show outside London. ``We don't expect this administration to make judgment about whetherthere are more F-22s,'' Stevens said. ``This will certainly be examined in great detail. I think it will bedependent on strategic need.''

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13/13


AffF35s key to Heg

F 35s deterrent capabilities are key to hegTom Dixon 8-23(http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/acbf27d6-584f-11dd-b02f-000077b07658.html, editorial)

On the second point, the F-22 cannot land on aircraft carriers as it cannot be stopped by an arresting hook. Thisis why the F-35 will be developed. The F-35 is very much needed as a deterrent. Taiwan is protectedimmediately by the US Seventh Fleet. The F-35 will be an F-22 with compromises to ensure that the US Navyhas an aircraft durable enough to be used at sea that can also land on an aircraft carrier. Fighter projects have along history of coming in over budget, so whether or not the F-35 really does turn out to be a cheaper prospectremains to be seen.

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409 SS Econ Updates

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