08 Slideshow DeRoo[1]

8/13/2019 08 Slideshow DeRoo[1]

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Floods and droughts in Europe:Early warning, prevention & risk mapping

Ad de Roo


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WDNH research topics

Floods Forecasting (EFA!

"#$ ($onau! cenarios o% change (prevention!

"#E (Ele! "#' ('der!

$roughts onitoring and %orecasting (E$A! Risk mapping

Floods, $roughts, Forest Fires, )eatwaves Aimed at European overview

patial planning Future land use changes E%%ects on %lood*drought*%ire risk v+v+

limate change E%%ects on %loods & droughts

-sing .", $", )adley scenarios


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specifically developed to simulate floods in large European river basins

spatially distributed and grid-based

enabling the spatial variation of land use, soil properties and precipitation

COMBINATION OF GRID-BASED RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODEL

+ 1D HYDRODYNAMIC CHANNEL FLOW ROUTING MODEL

SPECIAL FEATURES (RESERVOIR OPERATIONS, LAKES, POLDERS)

USING INITIAL CONDITIONS OBTAINED USING WATER BALANCE MODEL

MODEL INPUT

soil data, land use, topography and

channel dimensions

meteorological variables as rainfall,

potential evapotranspiration and

temperature

MODEL OUTPUTthe main output is river discharge

any calculated variable can be reported

as either maps, time series of maps or time

series at selected point locations

THE LISFLOOD MODEL


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LISFLOOD

JRC Eu!"#$% D$&$

-Soil, Surface,

river catchment

system,

M#'# S&$ *$&$-River

dimensions

- Alert levels

+

,++

1+++

1,++

-+++

-,++

. / - 0 /+ - + ++ . / - 2/ + - + + + . / - , /+ - + ++ . / - 3/ + - + + + . / - 4/ + - + ++ . / - ./ + - + + + . / - 5/ + - + + + . / 0 +/ + - + + + . / 0 1/ + - + + +

D# ) )$ u / R!) ) 6 $u W7 & & #% ( # 8 T ! 8$ u R7 # ) $ D # ) * # % L $ ( # D#9 7 % L $ ( #/ U) &7 N : L : V 6 & $ ;$ / P $8 u #

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Afforestation

M#! *$&$

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-+)+-+(

F6!!*

7'u6$&7!% '#%&

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S$$6# (JRC)

M!6*$u (CHMI)

P!6*# 7&

S&u*7#

(JRC)

F 7767& S& * D >& & *


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F#$7767&= S&u*= D!u8>& &!?$* !

Eu!"#$% D!u8>& A6#& S=' (EDAS)

Soil moisture development drought year "


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F#$7767&= S&u*= D!u8>&

. 'ase study

"$ uly "


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Daily soil moisture deelopment

oil suctionaveragedover /-9regions:

;55


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Drou&ht monitorin&: realtime soil moisture on We$


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,limate chan&e effects on floods - drou&hts

. Dsing "0-"2:m scenarios

from

B 5RD+E/'E +anish

(eteo nst, 1adley

'entre

B (a; 5lanc:-1amburg

. 5roducts

B D#&$76#* !;#;7#? !C67'$ 9>$%8#

##9& !% 6!!* $%*

*!u8>& 7% Eu!"#

B 'hanged *lood ris:

B 'hanged +rought ris:

+( change in average annual ma;imum daily precipitation

(ost areas in Europe are blue meaning they face an increase

. 'onsistent methodology

. >ransboundary analysis

. 5an-European hydrological model

combined 9ith

regional climate model

# l fl d h d


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#otential flood ha.ardmap of Europe

. (ethodology underdevelopment

. &ver-estimation of flood ha@ardin small tributary rivers


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/alidation:,omparison 0hine Atlas

and , Europeanflood ha.ard map

3apsheet 1"%

3ain. 4 Wies$aden

&D>8&&

. Dsing SR>( and ''(2

. Dsing 8S*8&&+-*5 for

flood ha@ard = inundation modelling


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C!7%# 155/

F6!!* H$$* M$"

by Elisabetta Genovese

E3posure to %lood ha=ard:historical analysis at E- level


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G!?7%8 #C"!)u# &! A6!!*) 7% Eu!"# (#&?##% 155+-+++

-"00

0

"00

200

#00

400

$00

00

KMD

E3posure to %lood ha=ard:historical analysis at E- level

Main developments occurred

in areas potentially effected

by flood

by Elisabetta Genovese

L ki t th f t


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$evelopment scenarios: hypotheses o% growth

)ighedium>owmportance ofmotor'ays

"ndustrial arearemain the same,

$emand %orcommercial and

services? land usedoules

"ndustrial arearemain the same,

$emand %orcommercial and

services? land usedoules

ame as %or the endo% @5?s

ndustrial%commerce andserices

$emand increases y


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Deelopment in Dresden ur$an area: simulationsusin& 387AND

Scenario A lo9 Scenario F baseline Scenario ' high


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9r$an deelopment in flood ha.ard areas in ,.echepu$lic

00

$0

"00

"$0

200

2000 'urrent trends

2020

Faseline

2020

(otor9ay

2020

>$

residential continuousresidential discontinuous

industrial areas

commercial

services


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8n&oin& and future challen&es

Estalish an improved data availaility: E-6F>''$67" (BR6C$/)!: historic and static hydrometeo data

-sing "/."RE principles "mproved caliration, validation

"$AD >"F>''$ A>ER9 (BR6C$/)!: realtime discharge (7R$! -pdating model simulations (data assimilation!

oil data (BR6ED!, currently 4, ;"$AR Guality! %or

%lood risk mapping (7E! 'ther satellite ased products (snow water eGuivalent, soil moisture!

-sing multi6model outputs, oth deterministic and proailistic(ensemles! to estimate %lood & drought proaility & uncertainty 9"77E * )E.EH

ommunication o% uncertainty (%lood proaility! to end6users andgeneral pulic

>inking climate change, land use changes with %lood & drought risk:inclusion o% %eedack mechanisms: E3ample >"F>''$ & '>A/$

E3amine the earliest possile moment to issue reliale warnings asedon multi6model and proailistic model outputs

-se o% monthly and seasonal %orecasts %or droughts

Applying and %urther development o% the tools outside Europe

!e" #ie:


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[email protected]

!e" #ie:

$%:&&'a(ra)-$a*ard#.jrc.i


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WDNH serice reuirements

European (access point! %or hydro6meteorological metadata Actively updated y countries & /) "ncluding access policy & distriution rights "ncluding pricing policy

)armoni=ation o% data speci%ications: 8ertical re%erence system in%o

Automated data6%low %rom data owner (/)! to application*user (e+g+EFA, E$A!

$issemination o% results: providing controlled access to weserviceswith results (e+g+ %orecasts, damage & risk mapping!

8isuali=e availale data per variale per timewindow per geographic area 8iew service to access topographic ackground in%ormation (e+g+ %lood

e3tent comined with critical in%rastructure, uildings, I! tandardi=ed download service %or %ast data delivery


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NS#E impact

"/."RE will provide %ree view servicesand on line access to critical in%rastructure

$i%%iculty in access criticalin%rastructure, uildings

"/."RE will:6'lige pulic odies to create metadata6ake sure that this metadata is madeavailale through catalog or we services6reate a European6wide access point %ordiscovery

)ydro6eteorologicalin%ormation*data hard to %ind

"/."RE will make data policies andlicenses transparent

.olicies %or )ydro6eteorologicalin%ormation*data hinder dataacGuisition

"/."RE will estalish harmoni=ed dataspeci%ications (e+g+, spatial re%erencesystems, grid!, including speci%ications %ortrans%ormation and e3change o%

in%ormation

9ime6consuming data conversion(%ormat, units, re%erence systems,etc+! time6consuming real6time datacollection

"/."RE will %acilitate the delivery o%products via secure, re6usale, we services

ensitive products (%orecasts, riskmaps, damage maps! need to edelivered to $7s and /)

NS#E solutionsSome pro$lems to $e addressed

08 Slideshow DeRoo[1]

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